Predicted dominance of variant Delta of SARS-CoV-2 before Tokyo Olympic Games, Japan, July 2021.
Predicted dominance of variant Delta of SARS-CoV-2 before Tokyo Olympic Games, Japan, July 2021.
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DOI：
10.2807/1560-7917.es.2021.26.27.2100570
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发表时间：
2021-07
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Nishiura H
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ito K;Piantham C;Nishiura H
根据截至2021年6月13日在日本检测到的SARS-CoV-2变异株的数量，R.1、Alpha和Delta变异株相对于在日本流行的其他毒株的相对瞬时繁殖数(RRI)估计为1.25、1.44和1.95。根据假设的序列间隔分布，RRI在R.1的1.20-1.32、Alpha的1.34-1.58和Delta的1.70-2.30之间变化。预计德尔塔的频率将在2021年7月23日之前接管日本的阿尔法。
Using numbers of SARS-CoV-2 variants detected in Japan as at 13 June 2021, relative instantaneous reproduction numbers (RRI) of the R.1, Alpha, and Delta variants with respect to other strains circulating in Japan were estimated at 1.25, 1.44, and 1.95. Depending on the assumed serial interval distributions, RRI varies from 1.20–1.32 for R.1, 1.34–1.58 for Alpha, and 1.70–2.30 for Delta. The frequency of Delta is expected to take over Alpha in Japan before 23 July 2021.