Predicting prolonged bovine tuberculosis breakdowns in Great Britain as an aid to control
Predicting prolonged bovine tuberculosis breakdowns in Great Britain as an aid to control
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DOI：
10.1016/j.prevetmed.2010.09.007
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发表时间：
2010-12-01
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Wood, J. L. N.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Karolemeas, K.;McKinley, T. J.;Wood, J. L. N.
牛结核病（bTB）是英国（GB）牛的一种重要的应呈报疾病，并受到法定控制措施的约束。尽管这种疾病的发病率自1980年代中期以来有所增加，约30%的牛群崩溃持续超过240天，这是确诊崩溃从检测感染清除可能最短时间的两倍（约120天），是未确诊崩溃可能最短时间的四倍（约160天）故障消耗大量资源，并可能成为持续的感染源，目前尚不清楚为什么有些故障会延长，目前已经重新分析了详细的病例对照数据，以确定持续时间超过240天的故障的危险因素，其中最重要的是故障的确认状态OR 126 （95%CI 6 7-25 4）。一个进一步的模型，限制在故障早期可获得的数据，用于全国所有故障，可以预测82% -84%的延长使用现有的4年国家数据集进行验证时，故障的阳性预测值为44-49%。在早期阶段识别长时间的故障有助于针对GB的bTB控制
Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is an important notifiable disease in cattle in Great Britain (GB) and is subject to statutory control measures Despite this disease incidence has increased since the mid-1980s and around 30% of herd breakdowns continue for more than 240 days This is twice the shortest possible time for confirmed breakdowns to test clear from infection (approximate to 120 days) and four times the shortest possible time for unconfirmed breakdowns (approximate to 160 days) These prolonged breakdowns consume substantial resources and may act as an ongoing source of infection It is not clear why some breakdowns become prolonged Existing detailed case-control data have been re-analysed to determine risk factors for breakdowns lasting longer than 240 days the strongest of which was the confirmation status of the breakdown OR 126 (95%CI 6 7-25 4) A further model restricted to data available early on in a breakdown for all breakdowns nationally can predict 82-84% of prolonged breakdowns with a positive predictive value of 44-49% when validated using existing national datasets over a 4-year period Identification of prolonged breakdowns at an earlier stage could help to target bTB controls in GB Crown Copyright (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier B V All rights reserved