Infrastructure Interdependency Failures From Extreme Weather Events as a Complex Process
Infrastructure Interdependency Failures From Extreme Weather Events as a Complex Process
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DOI：
10.3389/frwa.2020.00021
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发表时间：
2020-08
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Emily N Bondank;M. Chester
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Emily N Bondank;M. Chester
气候变化导致的极端天气事件下基础设施服务的损失源于社会、环境和技术系统变量之间复杂的相互作用，这些变量驱动着基础设施系统的行为。交互的复杂性导致故障以不可预测的方式级联，通常在不同的基础设施系统之间。管理这种不可预测性的一种常见方法是试图描述基础设施相互依赖性的因果关系，无论是与资源流、地理邻近性、逻辑连接还是网络基础设施的共同使用有关。我们认为，虽然一个还原的方法对表征的相互依赖性产生有用的见解，这是一个不足的战略本身，由于复杂性和不可预测性的发生和规模的级联故障跨系统。我们提出的历史案例研究表明，级联从相互依赖显示基本原则的复杂性，即非线性，路径依赖，并出现。Cynefin决策框架建议，复杂领域的系统管理包括不确定性下的决策和故障安全等策略，这些策略通过探测、测试、收集和分析数据来解决不确定性，最后部署解决方案，并承诺随着条件的变化重新评估系统。因此，我们建议，为了减轻极端天气事件导致系统故障级联的意外，基础设施管理人员应使用这些类型的策略来补充其规划工作。
The loss of infrastructure services under extreme weather events from climate change emerges from complex interactions between the social, environmental, and technological system variables which drive the behavior of infrastructure systems. The complexity of interactions causes failures to cascade in unpredictable ways, often between different infrastructure systems. A common approach to managing this unpredictability is to attempt to characterize the cause-and-effect relationships of infrastructure interdependencies, whether it be related to the resource flows, geographic proximity, logical connections, or the common use of cyber infrastructure. We posit that though a reductive approach toward characterization of interdependencies produces useful insights, it is an insufficient strategy by itself due to the complexity and unpredictability involved in the occurrence and magnitude of cascades of failure across systems. We present historical case studies which demonstrate that cascades from interdependencies display essential tenets of complexity—namely non-linearities, path dependence, and emergence. The Cynefin decision-making framework suggests that management of systems that are in the complex domain include strategies such as Decision Making Under Uncertainty and Safe-to-Fail, which address uncertainty by probing, testing, collecting and analyzing data, and lastly deploying solutions with a commitment to reassessing the systems as conditions change. We therefore recommend that in order to mitigate the surprise from cascades of failure across systems from extreme weather events, infrastructure managers supplement their planning efforts with these types of strategies.