Intermodal Competition in the London-Paris Passenger Market: High-Speed Rail and Air Transport
Intermodal Competition in the London-Paris Passenger Market: High-Speed Rail and Air Transport
复制标题
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.1416663
复制
发表时间：
2009-06
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Christiaan Behrens;E. Pels
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Christiaan Behrens;E. Pels
本文研究了2003-2009年间伦敦-巴黎客运市场的多式联运和多式联运竞争。我们确定了高速铁路在多大程度上是航空旅行的可行替代品，以及在何种条件下高速铁路可以替代航空旅行。使用汇集的横截面数据，我们估计了多项式和混合Logit模型来检验实际的出行行为。我们的模型使我们能够分析乘客行为对取消航空选择和2007年11月两个城市之间的高速铁路连接完成的反应。结果表明，出行时间和出行频率是影响出行行为的主要因素。在高铁开通后的几年中，总行程时间的估值发生了变化。此外，我们还表明，一些航空替代产品的市场份额相对于频率的直接弹性大于1，表明这些替代产品不能实现利润最大化。这些替代品随后在我们的样本期内离开了市场。对于剩下的航空替代品，除了易捷航空，我们发现市场份额相对于频率的弹性接近1。因此，我们猜测，从长远来看，这个市场的竞争将会下降。
This paper studies inter- and intramodal competition in the London–Paris passenger market during the period 2003–2009. We identify the degree to and conditions under which High-Speed Rail is a viable substitute for airline travel. Using pooled cross-sectional data we estimate multinomial and mixed logit models to examine actual travel behaviour. Our model allows us to analyse the reaction of passenger behaviour on the withdrawal of aviation alternatives and the completion of the High-Speed Rail link between the two cities in November 2007. The results show that travel time and frequency are the main determinants of travel behaviour. The valuation of total travel times changes over the years following the opening of the High-Speed Rail link. Furthermore, we show that the direct elasticity of market share with respect to frequency for a number of aviation alternatives is above 1, indicating that these alternatives are not able to maximise profits. These alternatives subsequently left the market in our sample period. For the remaining aviation alternatives, except for easyJet, we find elasticities of market share with respect to frequency close to 1. Therefore, we conjecture that competition in this market will decline in the long run.