A Physics-based Monte Carlo Earthquake Disaster Simulation Accounting for Uncertainty in Building Structure Parameters
A Physics-based Monte Carlo Earthquake Disaster Simulation Accounting for Uncertainty in Building Structure Parameters
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DOI：
10.1016/j.procs.2014.05.077
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发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Shunsuke Homma;K. Fujita;T. Ichimura;M. Hori;Seckin Citak;T. Hori
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Shunsuke Homma;K. Fujita;T. Ichimura;M. Hori;Seckin Citak;T. Hori
基于物理的地震灾害模拟预计将有助于高精度的地震灾害预测，然而，这种模型是计算昂贵的，结果通常包含显着的不确定性。在这里，我们描述了蒙特卡罗模拟，其中使用随机变化的建筑结构参数进行了10，000次计算，以模拟3，038栋建筑物。我们得到的空间分布的损害所造成的每一组参数，并分析这些数据进行统计，以预测建筑物的损坏程度。
Physics-based earthquake disaster simulations are expected to contribute to high-precision earthquake disaster prediction; however, such models are computationally expensive and the results typically contain significant uncertainties. Here we describe Monte Carlo simulations where 10,000 calculations were carried out with stochastically varied building structure parameters to model 3,038 buildings. We obtain the spatial distribution of the damage caused for each set of parameters, and analyze these data statistically to predict the extent of damage to buildings.