A malaria transmission-directed model of mosquito life cycle and ecology.
A malaria transmission-directed model of mosquito life cycle and ecology.
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DOI：
10.1186/1475-2875-10-303
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发表时间：
2011-10-17
期刊：
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
Eckhoff PA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Eckhoff PA
疟疾是世界上许多地方的一个主要公共卫生问题，而推动传播的蚊子媒介是干预措施的主要目标。规划疟疾根除的数学模型受益于当地蚊子种群的详细描述，它们的自然动态及其对运动压力的反应。一个新的模型，蚊子种群动态，天气的影响，多个同时进行的干预措施的影响。这个模型，然后嵌入在一个大规模的个人为基础的模拟和当地消除疟疾的结果进行了讨论。包括蚊子种群行为，如取食和室内喂食，以研究其对基于病媒控制的消灭运动效力的影响。病媒控制工具，如蚊帐，室内喷洒，幼虫控制和空间喷洒，单独和组合的结果，显示了单一的位置模拟与坦桑尼亚中部的病媒物种和季节性特征，不同的基线传播强度和病媒生物学。探讨了对栖息地类型、繁殖力、室内饲养和基线传播强度的敏感性。由于能够对具有不同生态和行为的一系列当地病媒物种进行建模，因此可以在当地定制一揽子干预措施，并探索拟议的新工具的效果。
Malaria is a major public health issue in much of the world, and the mosquito vectors which drive transmission are key targets for interventions. Mathematical models for planning malaria eradication benefit from detailed representations of local mosquito populations, their natural dynamics and their response to campaign pressures. A new model is presented for mosquito population dynamics, effects of weather, and impacts of multiple simultaneous interventions. This model is then embedded in a large-scale individual-based simulation and results for local elimination of malaria are discussed. Mosquito population behaviours, such as anthropophily and indoor feeding, are included to study their effect upon the efficacy of vector control-based elimination campaigns. Results for vector control tools, such as bed nets, indoor spraying, larval control and space spraying, both alone and in combination, are displayed for a single-location simulation with vector species and seasonality characteristic of central Tanzania, varying baseline transmission intensity and vector bionomics. The sensitivities to habitat type, anthropophily, indoor feeding, and baseline transmission intensity are explored. The ability to model a spectrum of local vector species with different ecologies and behaviours allows local customization of packages of interventions and exploration of the effect of proposed new tools.