Climate impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
Climate impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
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DOI：
10.1029/2006gl026242
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发表时间：
2006-09-02
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Scaife, Adam A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Knight, Jeff R.;Folland, Chris K.;Scaife, Adam A.
[1] 大西洋多年代际振荡（AMO）是一种近全球尺度的观测到的多年代际气候变率模式，在北半球大部分地区出现暖相和冷相交替。区域多年代际气候变率的许多突出例子都与 AMO 有关，例如巴西东北部和非洲萨赫勒地区的降雨、大西洋飓风以及北美和欧洲的夏季气候。然而，仪器气候记录的相对缺乏限制了人们对这些观测得出的关系的信心。在这里，我们在 HadCM3 气候模型的 1400 年控制模拟中寻找这些联系的证据，该模型产生了一个现实的长寿命 AMO 作为其内部气候变化的一部分。通过允许分析比观测中存在的更多的 AMO 循环，我们发现该模型证实了 AMO 与几乎所有上述现象的关联。这对区域气候的可预测性具有影响。
[1] The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is a near-global scale mode of observed multidecadal climate variability with alternating warm and cool phases over large parts of the Northern Hemisphere. Many prominent examples of regional multidecadal climate variability have been related to the AMO, such as North Eastern Brazilian and African Sahel rainfall, Atlantic hurricanes and North American and European summer climate. The relative shortness of the instrumental climate record, however, limits confidence in these observationally derived relationships. Here, we seek evidence of these links in the 1400 year control simulation of the HadCM3 climate model, which produces a realistic long-lived AMO as part of its internal climate variability. By permitting the analysis of more AMO cycles than are present in observations, we find that the model confirms the association of the AMO with almost all of the above phenomena. This has implications for the predictability of regional climate.