The shape of future electricity demand: Exploring load curves in 2050s Germany and Britain
The shape of future electricity demand: Exploring load curves in 2050s Germany and Britain
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DOI：
10.1016/j.energy.2015.06.082
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发表时间：
2015-10-01
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Staffell, I.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bossmann, T.;Staffell, I.
全国的电力需求遵循一个规律的、可预测的日常模式。由于效率的提高、去工业化以及供热和运输的电气化，这种模式必将改变。这些变化与可再生能源的输入无关，也没有得到很好的理解：当代研究假设电力负荷曲线将保持当前的形状，在所有时间内均匀缩放。这种形态的变化将深刻影响电力行业：增加对灵活和峰值容量的要求，降低资产利用率和盈利能力。本文探讨了德国和英国到2050年的负荷曲线演变，这两个国家正在经历截然不同的能源转型。它回顾了欧洲电力需求的最新发展，并介绍了两种综合未来小时负荷曲线的模型：eLOAD（电力负荷曲线调整）和DESSTinEE（欧洲能源服务、供应和传输需求）。这两种模型都适用于2050年的脱碳情景，并一致显示峰值负荷比年需求变化增加了约23%，德国达到103吉瓦，英国达到92吉瓦。围绕电气化的敏感性表明，100万台额外的热泵或电动汽车将增加1.5吉瓦的峰值需求。分析了未来负荷曲线的结构和形状，并绘制了对国家电力系统的影响。(C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd.版权所有。
National demand for electricity follows a regular and predictable daily pattern. This pattern is set to change due to efficiency improvements, de-industrialisation and electrification of heat and transport. These changes are independent of renewable infeed and are not well understood: contemporary studies assume that electricity load curves will retain their current shape, scaling equally in all hours. Changes to this shape will profoundly affect the electricity industry: increasing the requirements for flexible and peaking capacity, and reducing asset utilisation and profitability.This paper explores the evolution of load curves to 2050 in Germany and Britain: two countries undergoing radically different energy transformations. It reviews recent developments in Europe's electricity demand, and introduces two models for synthesising future hourly load curves: eLOAD (electricity LOad curve ADjustment) and DESSTinEE (Demand for Energy Services, Supply and Transmission in EuropE). Both models are applied to a decarbonisation scenario for 2050, and consistently show peak loads increasing by about 23% points above the change in annual demand, to 103 GW in Germany and 92 GW in Britain. Sensitivities around electrification show that a million extra heat pumps or electric vehicles add up to 1.5 GW to peak demand.The structure and shape of the future load curves are analysed, and impacts on the national electricity systems are drawn. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.