Monitoring the Tsushima Warm Current Improves Seasonal Prediction of the Regional Snowfall
Monitoring the Tsushima Warm Current Improves Seasonal Prediction of the Regional Snowfall
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DOI：
10.2151/sola.2006-016
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发表时间：
2006-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
Fukudome, Ken-ichi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hirose, Naoki;Fukudome, Ken-ichi
降雨或降雪的季节性预测通常在区域尺度上太不确定。我们建议利用次表层海洋测量来改善长期天气预报。我们给出的例子是，在日本的区域降雪可以预测一个简单的回归从声学多普勒电流剖面仪连接到一个定期的渡船，观察对马暖流的运输。滞后相关系数超过0.75，这是由于海洋气象学和区域海洋学的简单基础。这种关系肯定改善了由冬季风吸收日本海潜热导致的季节性降水估计。我们预测，尽管去年12月发生了强降雪事件，但2005/2006年冬季的降雪量将少于2004/2005年。
Seasonal predictions of rain or snowfall are usually too uncertain at regional scales. We suggest utilizing subsurface ocean measurements to improve long-term weather forecasts. The example we give is that regional snowfall in Japan can be predicted by a simple regression from an acoustic Doppler current profiler attached to a regular ferryboat to observe the transport of the Tsushima Warm Current. The lag correlation is shown to exceed 0.75 attributed to the simple underling marine meteorology and regional oceanography. The relationship certainly improves seasonal precipitation estimates led by the winter monsoon absorbing the latent heat from the Japan Sea. We predict there will be less snowfall this winter of 2005/2006 than in 2004/2005 despite the heavy snowfall event in the last December.