The effect of an ageing and less fit population on the ability of people to egress buildings
The effect of an ageing and less fit population on the ability of people to egress buildings
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ssci.2011.12.019
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发表时间：
2012-10
期刊：
影响因子：
6.1
通讯作者：
M. Spearpoint;H. MacLennan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Spearpoint;H. MacLennan
随着人口老龄化和身体健康状况的下降，建筑物居住者的出口功能可能会发生变化。对当前健康文献的回顾表明，肥胖可以用来确定步行速度可能降低的程度，也可以作为其他外出相关因素（例如跌倒风险）的标志。本文研究了性别、年龄和肥胖可能产生的影响，并使用蒙特卡罗网络疏散模型来研究这些变化是否会显着增加典型高层建筑的总疏散时间。建模结果表明，将 1971 年加拿大的历史数据与新西兰 2031 年的未来情景进行比较时，总疏散时间可能会增加多达 20%。
The functional capability of building occupants to egress from buildings is likely to change as populations age and become less fit. A review of the current health literature suggests obesity can be used to determine the likely reduction in walking speed and also as a marker for other egress related factors such as the risk of falls. This paper examines the possible effects of gender, age and obesity and uses a Monte Carlo network evacuation model to examine whether these changes will significantly increase the total evacuation time from an exemplar high-rise building. Modelling results suggest that total evacuation times may increase by up to 20% when comparing historical data from Canada in 1971 with a future New Zealand scenario for 2031.