Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions-猫眼课题宝

DOI：

10.1007/s00382-012-1600-0

发表时间：

2013-12

期刊：

Climate Dynamics

影响因子：

4.6

通讯作者：

中科院分区：

地球科学2区

文献类型：

作者：

Doug M. Smith;Adam A. Scaife;G. Boer;M. Caian;F. Doblas-Reyes;V. Guemas;E. Hawkins;W. Hazeleger;L. Hermanson;Chun Kit Ho;M. Ishii;V. Kharin;M. Kimoto;B. Kirtman;J. Lean;D. Matei;W. Merryfield;W. Müller;H. Pohlmann;A. Rosati;B. Wouters;K. Wyser

我们提出了未来十年的第一个气候预测，该预测是由多个模式做出的，初始化为先前的观测。这种预测来自于一项国际活动，即近乎实时地交换十年预测，以便评估差异和相似之处，提供一致意见，以防止对任何单一模式的预测过于自信，并建立当前的集体能力。我们强调预测是实验性的，因为多模式系统的能力尚不清楚。然而，这里使用的预报系统是基于经过严格评估的模型，并单独评估了预报技能。此外，重要的是发布预测，以实现公开评估，并在未来十年提供对气候变化的关注。2011年的初始化预测与观测结果非常吻合，模式相关性为0.62，而未初始化预测的模式相关性为0.31。特别是，该预报正确地预测了太平洋的La Niña以及北大西洋和美国的温暖条件。预计2012年也会出现类似的模式，但La Niña的强度会减弱。大西洋多年代际变率指数和太平洋年代际变率在2015年之后没有气候以外的信号，而Niño3地区的温度预计在未来十年将略微升温约0.5°C。然而，个别年份的不确定性较大，初始化对大多数地区前4年以后的影响不大。与未初始化预报相比，在整个十年中，北大西洋次极环流的初始化预报明显变暖，北太平洋的初始化预报明显变冷。在未来的几年里，全球平均气温以及大多数陆地和海洋地区的气温都要低得多。然而，在没有火山爆发的情况下，预计全球气温将继续上升，从2013年起，每年都有50%的机会超过目前观测到的记录。对这些预报的验证将为检验模式的性能以及我们对气候变化驱动因素的理解和知识提供一个重要的机会。

We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change.

Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions

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