Vulnerability assessment of marine economic system based on comprehensive index and catastrophe progression model
Vulnerability assessment of marine economic system based on comprehensive index and catastrophe progression model
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DOI：
10.1080/20964129.2020.1834459
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发表时间：
2020-01-01
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Liu, Wei
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gao, Sheng;Sun, Huihui;Liu, Wei
准确把握海洋经济系统脆弱性的动态演化特征和主要驱动因素从而有效识别海洋经济运行中存在的问题对海洋经济系统的可持续发展极为重要。在建立海洋经济系统脆弱性三级评价指标体系的基础上，运用综合指数模型和突变级数模型对2008-2016年江苏省海洋经济系统脆弱性进行了评价，并基于统一的评价标准对评价结果进行了比较。采用主成分分析和Pearson相关分析对主要影响因素进行分析。结果表明，2014年、2015年和2012年处于一般状态，2009年和2010年处于较差状态，2008 - 2011年的脆弱性低于2012年。整体波动性较小，表明系统稳定。其中，海洋产业规模和海洋资源损益是海洋经济系统脆弱性的主要构成因素，与海洋经济系统脆弱性的相关性最高。该研究丰富了海洋经济系统脆弱性的理论方法和实证研究，对于及时采取针对性的调控措施影响海洋经济系统的脆弱性具有现实意义。
The sustainable development of the marine economic system to accurately grasp the dynamic evolution characteristics and main driving factors of the vulnerability of the marine economic system so as to effectively identify the problems in the operation of the marine economy is extremely important. Based on the establishment of a three-level assessment index system for the vulnerability of the marine economic system, the vulnerability of the marine economic system of Jiangsu Province in 2008-2016 was evaluated by using the comprehensive index model and the catastrophe progression model, and the results were compared based on the unified evaluation criteria. The main influencing factors were analyzed by principal component analysis and Pearson correlation analysis. It's found that 2014, 2015, and 2012 are in a general state, 2009 and 2010 are in a poor state, and the vulnerability state from 2008 to 2011 is lower than that in 2012. The overall volatility is small indicating a stable system. Among them, the scale of marine industry and profit and loss of marine resources are the main components of marine economic system vulnerability having the highest correlation with the vulnerability of marine economic system. This study enriches the theoretical method and empirical research on the vulnerability of the marine economic system and has practical significance in allowing for timely targeted control measures to affect the vulnerability of the marine economic system.