Changes in precipitation extremes in alpine areas of the Chinese Tianshan Mountains, central Asia, 1961–2011
Changes in precipitation extremes in alpine areas of the Chinese Tianshan Mountains, central Asia, 1961–2011
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DOI：
10.1016/j.quaint.2013.07.008
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发表时间：
2013-10
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
Sheng-jie Wang;Mingjun Zhang;Meiping Sun;Bao-long Wang;Xiaofei Li
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Sheng-jie Wang;Mingjun Zhang;Meiping Sun;Bao-long Wang;Xiaofei Li
利用1961 - 2011年网格化逐日降水资料和实测逐日降水资料，分析了中国天山高山区逐日降水极值的变化特征。选取并计算了代表极端降水事件的4个指数。最大5天降水量、简单日强度指数和非常湿日降水量每10年分别显著增加1.18 mm、0.09 mm/d和6.75 mm，而连续干旱日数在研究期间每10年以5.83天的速度减少。突变年前后降水指数概率分布函数的变化也表明了增湿的趋势。降水指数的线性变化趋势在空间上是一致的。最大5天降水量、简单日强度指数和极湿日降水量分别有79.0%、83.8%和98.1%的格点呈增加趋势，连续干旱日降水量呈减少趋势的比例为95.2%。大多数降水指数的趋势（连续干旱日除外）与总降水趋势高度相关（p< 0.0001）。冬季降水指数与北方半球环形模态指数（也称北极涛动指数）之间的相关性显著，表明研究区极端降水与北极涛动有关。
Based on the gridded and observed daily precipitation datasets from 1961 to 2011, changes in daily precipitation extremes in alpine areas of the Chinese Tianshan Mountains are discussed. Four indices that represent extreme precipitation events are selected and calculated. Maximum 5-day precipitation, simple daily intensity index and very wet day precipitation have increased significantly by 1.18 mm, 0.09 mm/d, and 6.75 mm per decade, respectively, while consecutive dry days have decreased at a rate of 5.83 days per decade during the study period. Changes in probability distribution functions of precipitation indices before and after the detected abrupt year also indicate a wetting trend. Generally, the linear trends of precipitation indices are spatially coherent. Approximately 79.0%, 83.8%, and 98.1% of the grid boxes show increasing trends for maximum 5-day precipitation, simple daily intensity index and very wet day precipitation, respectively, and the proportion of decreasing trends for consecutive dry days is 95.2%. Trends in most precipitation indices (except consecutive dry days) are highly correlated with total precipitation trends (p< 0.0001). Significant correlations between precipitation indices and Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode Index (also referred as Arctic Oscillation Index) in wintertime indicate that precipitation extremes in the study area are related to the Arctic Oscillation.