Economic valuation of the vulnerability of world agriculture confronted with pollinator decline
Economic valuation of the vulnerability of world agriculture confronted with pollinator decline
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.ecolecon.2008.06.014
复制
发表时间：
2009-01-15
影响因子：
7
通讯作者：
Vaissiere, Bernard E.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gallai, Nicola;Salles, Jean-Michel;Vaissiere, Bernard E.
越来越多的证据表明，世界各地的传粉媒介都在减少，这对许多农业地区可能造成严重后果。我们通过测量1)昆虫授粉对世界农业产出经济价值的贡献，以及2)世界农业面对传粉者减少的脆弱性来评估这些后果。我们采用生物经济方法，综合了对传粉媒介的生产依赖比率，对粮农组织列出的全球100种直接供人类食用的作物进行了研究。全世界授粉的总经济价值达1530亿欧元，占2005年用于人类食物的世界农业生产价值的9.5%。在福利方面，根据平均价格弹性分别为- 1.5至- 0.8，消费者剩余损失估计在（sic）190亿至（sic） 3100亿之间。蔬菜和水果是昆虫授粉价值最高的作物类别，每种价值约为500亿美元，其次是食用油作物、兴奋剂、坚果和香料。每吨不依赖昆虫授粉的作物类别的生产价值平均为151，而依赖传粉者的作物类别的生产价值平均为761。脆弱性比在区域和世界尺度上计算为授粉的经济价值与当前作物总价值之间的比率。这一比例在不同作物类别之间差异很大，作物类别对传粉媒介的脆弱性下降率与其单位生产价值之间存在正相关关系。考虑到在传粉媒介消失后，养活世界人口的能力，三种作物的产量——即水果、蔬菜和兴奋剂——显然将低于目前世界范围内的消费水平，在欧洲等某些地区甚至会更低。然而，尽管我们的估值清楚地表明了昆虫传粉媒介的经济重要性，但它不能被视为一种情景，因为它没有考虑到市场的战略反应。(C) 2008 Elsevier B.V.版权所有
There is mounting evidence of pollinator decline all over the world and consequences in many agricultural areas could be significant. We assessed these consequences by measuring 1) the contribution of insect pollination to the world agricultural output economic value, and 2) the vulnerability of world agriculture in the face of pollinator decline. We used a bioeconomic approach, which integrated the production dependence ratio on pollinators, for the 100 crops used directly for human food worldwide as listed by FAO. The total economic value of pollination worldwide amounted to (sic)153 billion, which represented 9.5% of the value of the world agricultural production used for human food in 2005. In terms of welfare, the consumer surplus loss was estimated between (sic)190 and (sic)310 billion based upon average price elasticities of - 1.5 to - 0.8, respectively. Vegetables and fruits were the leading crop categories in value of insect pollination with about (sic)50 billion each, followed by edible oil crops, stimulants, nuts and spices. The production value of a ton of the crop categories that do not depend on insect pollination averaged (sic)151 while that of those that are pollinator-dependent averaged (sic)761. The vulnerability ratio was calculated for each crop category at the regional and world scales as the ratio between the economic value of pollination and the current total crop value. This ratio varied considerably among crop categories and there was a positive correlation between the rate of vulnerability to pollinators decline of a crop category and its value per production unit. Looking at the capacity to nourish the world population after pollinator loss, the production of 3 crop categories - namely fruits, vegetables, and stimulants - will clearly be below the current consumption level at the world scale and even more so for certain regions like Europe. Yet, although our valuation clearly demonstrates the economic importance of insect pollinators, it cannot be considered as a scenario since it does not take into account the strategic responses of the markets. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.