Reliability Estimation for Networks of Reinforced Concrete Bridges
Reliability Estimation for Networks of Reinforced Concrete Bridges
复制标题
钢筋混凝土桥网的可靠性评估
DOI：
10.1061/(asce)1076-0342(2009)15:2(61
复制
发表时间：
2009
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
P. Gardoni
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
S. Guikema;P. Gardoni
交通网络是关键的生命线，其在地震后的功能对社区的生命安全和经济恢复至关重要，但它们在地震期间可能遭到严重破坏。钢筋混凝土桥梁是这些网络中特别脆弱的部分，在过去的地震中受到严重破坏。过去估计地震造成的交通中断的方法依赖于计算成本高昂的模拟，并且往往高估了地震后的交通量。本文利用预测脆弱性估计来计算网络中桥梁在给定的地震动强度值下达到或超过指定性能水平的条件概率。预测的脆弱性包含了现象中固有的不确定性的相关来源。本文的重点是网络连通性，而不是交通流量。该方法的结果可用于交通模型，以准确反映灾后情况。采用基于块采样的仿真技术对网络连通性进行估计。这种新方法提供了一种方便、快速的网络可靠性估计，补充了计算成本高昂的流量模型。
Transportation networks are critical lifelines and their functionality after an earthquake is of primary importance for life safety and economic recovery of a community, yet they can be severely damaged during earthquakes. Reinforced concrete bridges are particularly vulnerable segments of these networks and have been severely damaged in past earthquakes. Past approaches for estimating traffic disruptions due to earthquakes have relied on computationally expensive simulations and have tended to overestimate postearthquake traffic volumes. This paper makes use of predictive fragility estimates to compute the conditional probability that a bridge in the network attains or exceeds a specified performance level for a given value of the ground motion intensity. The predictive fragilities incorporate the relevant sources of uncertainty inherent in the phenomenon. The focus of the paper is on network connectivity rather than traffic flow. The outcomes of the proposed approach can then be used by traffic models to accurately reflect postdisaster conditions. A block sampling-based simulation technique is used to estimate the network connectivity. This new approach provides a convenient, quick estimation of network reliability that complements computationally expensive traffic models.