Projection of Diabetic Retinopathy and Other Major Eye Diseases Among People With Diabetes Mellitus United States, 2005-2050
Projection of Diabetic Retinopathy and Other Major Eye Diseases Among People With Diabetes Mellitus United States, 2005-2050
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DOI：
10.1001/archopht.126.12.1740
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发表时间：
2008-12-01
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Boyle, James P.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Saaddine, Jinan B.;Honeycutt, Amanda A.;Boyle, James P.
目的：估计 2005 年至 2050 年 40 岁或以上诊断为糖尿病的美国人中患有糖尿病视网膜病变 (DR)、危及视力的 DR (VTDR)、青光眼和白内障的人数。方法：利用已发布的 DR、VTDR、青光眼和白内障患病率数据以及来自国家健康访谈调查和美国人口普查局的数据，我们预测了美国患有糖尿病的人数结果：到 2050 年，40 岁或以上患有 DR 和 VTDR 的美国人数量将增加两倍，从 2005 年的 550 万增加到 1600 万，从 2005 年的 120 万增加到 340 万。 65 岁或以上人群的增长将更加明显（DR 为 250 万至 990 万，VTDR 为 50 万至 190 万）。到 2050 年，40 岁或以上患有糖尿病的白人和黑人中白内障病例数可能会增加 235%，而 65 岁或以上患有糖尿病的西班牙裔中青光眼病例数将增加 12 倍。结论：未来美国糖尿病患者人数的增加可能会导致 DR、青光眼和白内障患者人数显着增加。我们的预测可以帮助政策制定者预测未来对医疗保健资源的需求，并可能指导有针对性的干预措施的制定。
Objectives: To estimate the number of people with diabetic retinopathy (DR), vision-threatening DR (VTDR), glaucoma, and cataracts among Americans 40 years or older with diagnosed diabetes mellitus for the years 2005-2050.Methods: Using published prevalence data of DR, VTDR, glaucoma, and cataracts and data from the National Health Interview Survey and the US Census Bureau, we projected the number of Americans with diabetes with these eye conditions.Results: The number of Americans 40 years or older with DR and VTDR will triple in 2050, from 5.5 million in 2005 to 16.0 million for DR and from 1.2 million in 2005 to 3.4 million for VTDR. Increases among those 65 years or older will be more pronounced (2.5 million to 9.9 million for DR and 0.5 million to 1.9 million for VTDR). The number of cataract cases among whites and blacks 40 years or older with diabetes will likely increase 235% by 2050, and the number of glaucoma cases among Hispanics with diabetes 65 years or older will increase 12-fold.Conclusion: Future increases in the number of Americans with diabetes will likely lead to significant increases in the number with DR, glaucoma, and cataracts. Our projections may help policy makers anticipate future demands for health care resources and possibly guide the development of targeted interventions.