Evaluation of the performance of different atmospheric chemical transport models and inter-comparison of nitrogen and sulphur deposition estimates for the UK
Evaluation of the performance of different atmospheric chemical transport models and inter-comparison of nitrogen and sulphur deposition estimates for the UK
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DOI：
10.1016/j.atmosenv.2015.08.008
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发表时间：
2015-10
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
A. Dore;D. Carslaw;C. Braban;M. Cain;C. Chemel;C. Conolly;R. Derwent;S. Griffiths;Jane R. Hall;G. Hayman;S. Lawrence;S. Metcalfe;A. Redington;D. Simpson;M. Sutton;P. Sutton;Y. S. Tang;M. Vieno;M. Werner;J. D. Whyatt
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作者：
A. Dore;D. Carslaw;C. Braban;M. Cain;C. Chemel;C. Conolly;R. Derwent;S. Griffiths;Jane R. Hall;G. Hayman;S. Lawrence;S. Metcalfe;A. Redington;D. Simpson;M. Sutton;P. Sutton;Y. S. Tang;M. Vieno;M. Werner;J. D. Whyatt
对几种不同复杂性的大气化学输送模式进行了评估，这些模式被应用于估算英国的硫和氮沉积。通过与来自国家监测网的气体、气溶胶和降水浓度的年平均测量值进行比较，对这些模型进行了评估。根据绩效标准对这些模型进行了评估。他们通常能够满足“目标适合性”的标准，即至少50%的模拟浓度应在测量值的两倍以内。第二个标准，即归一化平均偏差的幅度应该小于20%，并不总是得到满足。考虑到测量技术中已知的不确定性，这个标准可能太严格了。总体而言，简单的模型能够很好地表示测量到的气体浓度，同时使用动态气象学，而复杂的光化学反应导致更复杂的模型通常更好地表示测量的气溶胶和降水浓度。通过绘制地图和干湿沉降横断面以及计算硫、氧化氮和还原氮向英国的总湿沉降和干沉降预算，对模型进行了图形比较。根据沉积成分的不同，不同模型对英国的总沉降量变化为±22-36%。在地方尺度上，对单个5×5公里模型网格的干和湿沉积的估计被发现在不同的模型之间差异高达4倍。
An evaluation has been made of a number of contrasting atmospheric chemical transport models, of varying complexity, applied to estimate sulphur and nitrogen deposition in the UK. The models were evaluated by comparison with annually averaged measurements of gas, aerosol and precipitation concentrations from the national monitoring networks. The models were evaluated in relation to performance criteria. They were generally able to satisfy a criterion of ‘fitness for purpose’ that at least 50% of modelled concentrations should be within a factor of two of measured values. The second criterion, that the magnitude of the normalised mean bias should be less than 20%, was not always satisfied. Considering known uncertainties in measurement techniques, this criterion may be too strict. Overall, simpler models were able to give a good representation of measured gas concentrations whilst the use of dynamic meteorology, and complex photo-chemical reactions resulted in a generally better representation of measured aerosol and precipitation concentrations by more complex models.The models were compared graphically by plotting maps and cross-country transects of wet and dry deposition as well as calculating budgets of total wet and dry deposition to the UK for sulphur, oxidised nitrogen and reduced nitrogen. The total deposition to the UK varied by ±22–36% amongst the different models depending on the deposition component. At a local scale estimates of both dry and wet deposition for individual 5 km × 5 km model grid squares were found to vary between the different models by up to a factor of 4.