Assessing Climate Change Impact on Water Balance Components of a River Basin Using SWAT Model
Assessing Climate Change Impact on Water Balance Components of a River Basin Using SWAT Model
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DOI：
10.1007/s11269-015-1089-5
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发表时间：
2015-08
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
B. Uniyal;M. Jha;A. K. Verma
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
B. Uniyal;M. Jha;A. K. Verma
气候变化是最重要的全球环境挑战之一，它影响着整个地球系统，对粮食生产、供水、健康、生计、能源等产生负面影响。本研究的目的是使用 ArcSWAT 模型评估气候变化对数据匮乏的印度东部上拜塔拉尼河流域水平衡组成部分的影响。 ArcSWAT 模型使用 SUFI-2 技术进行校准。采用 1998 年至 2003 年逐日观测的径流数据进行校准，并采用 2004 年至 2005 年的逐日观测径流数据进行验证。校准结果令人满意，每日时间步长的纳什-萨克利夫效率 (NSE) 和平均绝对误差 (MAE) 分别为 0.88 和 9.70 m3/s。此外，该模型已成功验证用于模拟每日水流（NSE = 0.80 和 MAE = 10.33 m3/s）。然后使用经过校准和验证的模型来评估流域对 21 世纪末预期气候变化的响应。本研究考虑了十二个独立的以及二十八个组合的特定区域气候情景，以评估气候变化对流域水文的影响。对 12 个独立气候情景的模型结果分析表明，温度从 1°C 变化到 5°C，地表径流减少了 2.5% 到 11%，而降雨量增加 2.5% 到 15%，表明地表径流比基线条件增加了 6.67% 到 43.42%。在 28 个组合情景中，与基线条件相比，地表径流的变化将从 -4.55% 变化到 37.53%，地下水补给量将从 -8.7% 变化到 23.15%，蒸散量将从 4.05% 增加到 11.88%。结论是，到21世纪末，未来气候条件的变化最有可能对研究区的径流产生重大影响。本研究的结果以及该方向的后续研究结果将有助于指导流域面临即将发生的气候变化时可持续水管理的适当适应措施。
Climate change is one of the most important global environmental challenges, which affects the entire earth system in terms of negative impacts on food production, water supply, health, livelihood, energy, etc. The intent of the present study was to assess the impact of climate change on the water balance components of a data-starved Upper Baitarani River basin of Eastern India using ArcSWAT model. The ArcSWAT model was calibrated using SUFI-2 technique. The daily observed streamflow data from 1998 to 2003 were employed for calibration and those for 2004–2005 for validation. The calibration results were found to be satisfactory with the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.88 and 9.70 m3/s for the daily time step, respectively. Also, the model was validated successfully for simulating daily streamflow (NSE = 0.80 and MAE = 10.33 m3/s). The calibrated and validated model was then used to evaluate basin response to the anticipated climate changes by the end of the 21st century. Twelve independent as well as twenty eight combined area-specific climatic scenarios were considered in this study to evaluate the impact of climate change on the hydrology of the basin. The analysis of model results for the 12 Independent Climatic Scenarios indicated a reduction in the surface runoff ranging from 2.5 to 11 % by changing the temperature from 1 to 5 °C, whereas the increase in rainfall by 2.5 to 15 % suggested an increase in surface runoff by 6.67 to 43.42 % from the baseline condition. In case of 28 Combined Scenarios compared to the baseline condition, the changes in surface runoff would vary from −4.55 to 37.53 %, the groundwater recharge would change from −8.7 to 23.15 % and the evapotranspiration would increase from 4.05 to 11.88 %. It is concluded that future changes in the climatic condition by the end of the 21st century are most likely to produce significant impacts on the streamflow in the study area. The findings of this study and those of follow-up studies in this direction will be useful for guiding suitable adaptation measures for sustainable water management in the basin in the face of impending climate change.