An Adamite Derivation of the Principles of the Calculus of Probability
An Adamite Derivation of the Principles of the Calculus of Probability
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概率微积分原理的 Adamite 推导
DOI：
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发表时间：
1988
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
A. Shimony
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Shimony
如果亚当甚至在获得世界经验之前就已经是一个理性的人，如果概率推理的能力是理性的一个重要组成部分（正如巴特勒主教在他写道：“但是，对我们来说，概率是生活的指南“时所坚持的那样，那么亚当至少必须心照不宣地知道概率演算的原理。具体地说，亚当一定知道概率的认识概念--“合理程度的信念”意义上的概率--满足这些原则，因为它是认识概念，而不是频率概念或倾向概念，但是，亚当有什么根据来明确地或默示地断言，认识概率满足概率演算原理
If Adam was a rational man even before he had garnered much experience of the world, and if the ability to reason probabilistically is an essential part of rationality (as Bishop Butler maintained when he wrote that “But, to us, probability is the very guide of life,”1), then Adam must at least tacitly have known the Principles of the Calculus of Probability. Specifically, Adam must have known that the epistemic concept of probability — probability in the sense of “reasonable degree of belief” — satisfies these Principles, for it is the epistemic concept, rather than the frequency concept or the propensity concept, which enters into rational assessments about uncertain outcomes.2 But what warrant did Adam have for either an explicit or a tacit assertion that epistemic probability satisfies the Principles of the Calculus of Probability?