How Does Shifting Pacific Ocean Warming Modulate on Tropical Cyclone Frequency over the South China Sea
How Does Shifting Pacific Ocean Warming Modulate on Tropical Cyclone Frequency over the South China Sea
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DOI：
10.1175/2011jcli4140.1
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发表时间：
2011-09
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Guanghua Chen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Guanghua Chen
摘要
研究了1960 - 2009年北半球夏季和秋季期间，厄尔尼诺 Modoki和典型厄尔尼诺事件对南海热带气旋（TC）频率的不同调制作用。采用自助重采样方法和双样本置换程序分别模拟抽样分布和进行统计检验。假设检验结果表明，在厄尔尼诺Modoki年的6 - 8月（JJA），南海热带气旋频率高于正常水平，而在典型厄尔尼诺年的9 - 11月（SON），热带气旋频率显著低于正常水平。这种显著相反的调制作用可归因于不同的大尺度环流异常，这与两种太平洋暖事件下西北太平洋（WNP）和海洋大陆上空热带热源/热汇的松野 - 吉尔型响应是一致的。针对在JJA期间WNP上空的大尺度对流异常……
AbstractThe different modulation of El Nino Modoki and canonical El Nino events on tropical cyclone (TC) frequency over the South China Sea (SCS) during boreal summer and fall for 1960–2009 is investigated. The bootstrap resampling method and two-sample permutation procedure are applied to simulate sampling distributions and conduct statistical tests, respectively. Results from the hypothesis testing indicate that the above-normal TC frequency over the SCS occurs during June–August (JJA) for the El Nino Modoki years, whereas the below-normal TC frequency is significant during September–November (SON) for the canonical El Nino years. The remarkably opposite modulations can be attributed to the different large-scale circulation anomalies, which are consistent with Matsuno–Gill-type responses to the tropical heating source/sink over the western North Pacific (WNP) and Maritime Continent for two kinds of Pacific Ocean warming events. In response to a broad-scale convection anomaly over the WNP during JJA for ...