Asian climate change under 1.5–4 °C warming targets
Asian climate change under 1.5–4 °C warming targets
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DOI：
10.1016/j.accre.2017.05.004
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发表时间：
2017-06
影响因子：
7.4
通讯作者：
Ying Xu;Botao Zhou;Jiefang Wu;Zhenyu Han;Yongxiang Zhang;Jia Wu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ying Xu;Botao Zhou;Jiefang Wu;Zhenyu Han;Yongxiang Zhang;Jia Wu
基于18个CMIP 5模式在3种RCP情景下的模拟结果，本文研究了全球变暖1.5-4 °C目标下亚洲地区平均气温和降水及其极值的变化，并进一步比较了1.5 °C和2 °C目标的差异。结果表明，在1.5 °C、2 °C、3 °C和4 °C的增暖目标下，亚洲平均气温相对于前工业化时代分别升高了2.3 °C、3.0 °C、4.6 °C和6.0 °C，高纬度地区增暖幅度大于低纬度地区。亚洲地区平均降水量相应增加4.4%、5.8%、10.2%和13.0%，区域差异显著。此外，预计极端温暖天气将增加，极端寒冷天气将减少，极端降水量的变异性将加强。在1.5 °C目标下，与2 °C目标下的气候相比，亚洲平均气温将低0.5-1 °C;亚洲大部分地区平均降水量将少5%-20%，但西亚和南亚西部将多10%-15%左右;极端高温将在整个亚洲地区均匀降温，而亚洲高纬度地区极端低温的变暖将显著减少;亚洲大部分地区的极端降水将减弱，但西亚和南亚西部的极端降水将增强。在1.5 °C和2 °C的升温目标下，与参考期（1861-1900年）相比，特热天气（异常大于1σ，σ为标准差）、极热天气（异常大于3 σ）和特大降水（异常大于3σ）发生的概率将分别增加至少1倍、10%和10%。
Based on simulations of 18 CMIP5 models under three RCP scenarios, this article investigates changes in mean temperature and precipitation and their extremes over Asia in the context of global warming targets of 1.5–4 °C, and further compares the differences between 1.5 °C and 2 °C targets. Results show that relative to the pre-industrial era, the mean temperature over Asia increases by 2.3 °C, 3.0 °C, 4.6 °C, and 6.0 °C at warming targets of 1.5 °C, 2 °C, 3 °C, and 4 °C, respectively, with stronger warming in high latitudes than in low latitudes. The corresponding enhancement in mean precipitation over the entire Asian region is 4.4%, 5.8%, 10.2%, and 13.0%, with significant regional differences. In addition, an increase in warm extremes, a decrease in cold extremes, and a strengthening in the variability of amounts of extreme precipitation are projected. Under the 1.5 °C target, compared with the climate under the 2 °C target, the mean temperature will be lower by 0.5–1 °C over Asia; the mean precipitation will be less by 5%–20% over most of Asia, but will be greater by about 10%–15% over West Asia and western South Asia; extreme high temperatures will be uniformly cooler throughout the Asian region, and the warming in extreme low temperatures will decrease significantly in high latitudes of Asia; extreme precipitation will be weaker over most of Asia but will be stronger over West Asia and western South Asia. Under the 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming targets, the probability of very hot weather (anomalies greater than 1σ, σ is standard deviation), extremely hot weather (anomalies greater than 3σ), and extremely heavy precipitation (anomalies greater than 3σ) occurring will increase by at least once, 10%, and 10%, respectively, compared to the reference period (1861–1900).