Are births underreported in rural China? Manipulation of statistical records in response to China's population policies
Are births underreported in rural China? Manipulation of statistical records in response to China's population policies
复制标题
DOI：
10.2307/2648100
复制
发表时间：
2000-02-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Raftery, AE
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Merli, MG;Raftery, AE
在中国现行的计划生育政策下，评估计划生育制度所涉各方的标准为每个人提供了一种激励，以确保政策得到遵守，无论是在现实中通过严格执行计划生育条例，还是在统计上通过操纵统计记录。利用1992年中国北方4个县的生育史抽样调查资料，对中国农村出生人口漏报情况进行了调查。为了澄清漏报的机制，我们专注于报告错误可能会影响自结婚以来首次生育的时间分布的方式。我们的调查结果表明，在四个县中的三个县，由于少报女婴和以第二胎作为第一胎报告，第一胎间隔时间延长。
Under the current family planning policy in China, the criterion for evaluating all parties involved in the birth planning system provides an incentive for everyone to see that the policy is met, either in reality through strict enforcement of family planning regulations, or statistically through manipulation of statistical records. We investigate underreporting of births in four rural counties of northern China, using data from a 1992 sample survey featuring a reproductive history. To clarify the mechanisms of underreporting, we focus on the ways in which reporting errors may affect the distribution of first births by time since marriage. The results of our investigation suggest that in three of the four counties, first-birth intervals are lengthened by underreporting of girl babies and by replacing them with second births reported as first births.