IDF Diabetes Atlas: Global estimates for the prevalence of diabetes for 2015 and 2040
IDF Diabetes Atlas: Global estimates for the prevalence of diabetes for 2015 and 2040
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DOI：
10.1016/j.diabres.2017.03.024
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发表时间：
2017-06-01
影响因子：
5.1
通讯作者：
Makaroff, L. E.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ogurtsova, K.;Fernandes, J. D. da Rocha;Makaroff, L. E.
目的：为了对2015年和2040年糖尿病对国家、区域和全球的影响进行当前估计，我们进行了系统的文献综述，以确定1990年至2015年期间进行的研究中糖尿病患病率的数据来源。采用层次分析法为每个国家选择最适当的研究，对没有数据的国家的估计数则采用从有数据的类似国家推断的方法模拟。Logistic回归模型被用来生成平滑的年龄特定的估计，这是适用于联合国population estimates.Results：540数据源进行了审查，其中196个来源，从111个国家被选中。据估计，2015年有4.15亿（不确定区间：3405.36亿）20-79岁的糖尿病患者，500万人死于糖尿病，全球因糖尿病而产生的医疗总支出估计为6730亿美元。四分之三（75%）的糖尿病患者生活在低收入和中等收入国家。预计到2040年，20-79岁的糖尿病患者人数将增加到6.42亿（不确定区间：521-829亿）。结论：地球仪糖尿病患病率、糖尿病死亡率和糖尿病医疗费用持续上升，并对社会、财政和卫生系统产生重要影响。(C)2017爱思唯尔B. V.保留所有权利。
Aim: To produce current estimates of the national, regional and global impact of diabetes for 2015 and 2040.Methods: A systematic literature review was conducted to identify data sources on the prevalence of diabetes from studies conducted in the period from 1990 to 2015. An analytic hierarchy process was used to select the most appropriate studies for each country, and estimates for countries without data were modelled using extrapolation from similar countries that had available data. A logistic regression model was used to generate smoothed age-specific estimates, which were applied to UN population estimates.Results: 540 data sources were reviewed, of which 196 sources from 111 countries were selected. In 2015 it was estimated that there were 415 million (uncertainty interval: 340536 million) people with diabetes aged 20-79 years, 5.0 million deaths attributable to diabetes, and the total global health expenditure due to diabetes was estimated at 673 billion US dollars. Three quarters (75%) of those with diabetes were living in low-and middle-income countries. The number of people with diabetes aged 20-79 years was predicted to rise to 642 million (uncertainty interval: 521-829 million) by 2040.Conclusion: Diabetes prevalence, deaths attributable to diabetes, and health expenditure due to diabetes continue to rise across the globe with important social, financial and health system implications. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.