Local adaptation and the evolution of species' ranges under climate change
Local adaptation and the evolution of species' ranges under climate change
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jtbi.2010.07.014
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发表时间：
2010-10-07
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Travis, J. M. J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Atkins, K. E.;Travis, J. M. J.
气候变化对生物多样性的潜在影响已有充分记录。目前存在一系列完善的统计方法，可以直接根据当前的气候和物种分布来预测物种未来可能的栖息地。然而，纳入生态和进化过程的研究仍然有限。在这里，我们重点关注当地对气候的适应在驱动固着生物的范围动态方面可能发挥的潜在作用。将环境适应纳入随机模拟产生了一些新的见解。与直觉相反，我们的模拟结果表明，分布范围更广的物种不一定对气候变化更有抵抗力。相反，具有更广泛分布范围的物种可能更容易灭绝，因为适应当地的基因型常常被更凉爽的适应基因型的存在所阻碍，即使它们的最佳气候已经将它们抛在了后面，这些基因型仍然存在。有趣的是，我们的结果还表明，驱动向极范围扩展的并不总是冷适应表型。相反，范围变化可能是由表型驱动的，表型赋予对物种平衡分布中心普遍存在的条件的适应。这可能对称为预测起源的保护方法产生重要影响。这些初步结果强调了当地适应在确定物种如何应对气候变化方面的潜在重要性，我们认为这是一个需要迫切理论和经验关注的领域。 (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. 保留所有权利。
The potential impact of climate change on biodiversity is well documented. A well developed range of statistical methods currently exists that projects the possible future habitat of a species directly from the current climate and a species distribution. However, studies incorporating ecological and evolutionary processes remain limited. Here, we focus on the potential role that local adaptation to climate may play in driving the range dynamics of sessile organisms. Incorporating environmental adaptation into a stochastic simulation yields several new insights. Counter-intuitively, our simulation results suggest that species with broader ranges are not necessarily more robust to climate change. Instead, species with broader ranges can be more susceptible to extinction as locally adapted genotypes are often blocked from range shifting by the presence of cooler adapted genotypes that persist even when their optimum climate has left them behind. Interestingly, our results also suggest that it will not always be the cold-adapted phenotypes that drive polewards range expansion. Instead, range shifts may be driven by phenotypes conferring adaptation to conditions prevalent towards the centre of a species' equilibrium distribution. This may have important consequences for the conservation method termed predictive provenancing. These initial results highlight the potential importance of local adaptation in determining how species will respond to climate change and we argue that this is an area requiring urgent theoretical and empirical attention. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.