Global trends in carbon sinks and their relationships with CO2 and temperature
Global trends in carbon sinks and their relationships with CO2 and temperature
复制标题
DOI：
10.1038/s41558-018-0367-7
复制
发表时间：
2019-01-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Penuelas, J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fernandez-Martinez, M.;Sardans, J.;Penuelas, J.
CO2浓度升高会增加光合作用，并可能增加生态系统净生产（NEP），这意味着更大的CO2吸收。然而，气候、营养物质和生态系统结构会影响二氧化碳增加的效果。在这里，我们分析了全球NEP从MACC-II和耶拿CarboScope大气逆温和10个动态全球植被模型（TRENDY），使用统计模型来属性的趋势，在NEP其潜在的驱动因素：CO2，气候变量和土地利用变化。我们发现，二氧化碳的增加与NEP的增加始终相关（1995-2014）。相反，温度升高与NEP呈负相关。利用两次大气逆温和TRENDY，估计全球对CO2的敏感性分别为每百万分之6.0 +/- 0.1、8.1 +/- 0.3和3.1 +/- 0.1 PgC（类似于每增加1摄氏度），对温度的敏感性分别为-0.5 +/- 0.2、-0.9 +/- 0.4和-1.1 +/- 0.1 PgC摄氏度。这些结果表明，积极的CO2对陆地碳汇的影响，气候变暖的制约。
Elevated CO2 concentrations increase photosynthesis and, potentially, net ecosystem production (NEP), meaning a greater CO2 uptake. Climate, nutrients and ecosystem structure, however, influence the effect of increasing CO2. Here we analysed global NEP from MACC-II and Jena CarboScope atmospheric inversions and ten dynamic global vegetation models ( TRENDY), using statistical models to attribute the trends in NEP to its potential drivers: CO2, climatic variables and land-use change. We found that an increased CO2 was consistently associated with an increased NEP (1995-2014). Conversely, increased temperatures were negatively associated with NEP. Using the two atmospheric inversions and TRENDY, the estimated global sensitivities for CO2 were 6.0 +/- 0.1, 8.1 +/- 0.3 and 3.1 +/- 0.1 PgC per 100 ppm (similar to 1 degrees C increase), and -0.5 +/- 0.2, -0.9 +/- 0.4 and -1.1 +/- 0.1 PgC degrees C-1 for temperature. These results indicate a positive CO2 effect on terrestrial C sinks that is constrained by climate warming.