Progress in the reconstruction of Quaternary climate dynamics in the Northwest Pacific: A new modern analogue reference dataset and its application to the 430-kyr pollen record from Lake Biwa
Progress in the reconstruction of Quaternary climate dynamics in the Northwest Pacific: A new modern analogue reference dataset and its application to the 430-kyr pollen record from Lake Biwa
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DOI：
10.1016/j.earscirev.2011.06.002
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发表时间：
2011-09
影响因子：
12.1
通讯作者：
P. Tarasov;T. Nakagawa;D. Demske;H. Österle;Y. Igarashi;J. Kitagawa;L. M. Mokhova;V. Bazarova;M. Okuda;K. Gotanda;Norio Miyoshi;T. Fujiki;Keiji Takemurak;H. Yonenobu;A. Fleck
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
P. Tarasov;T. Nakagawa;D. Demske;H. Österle;Y. Igarashi;J. Kitagawa;L. M. Mokhova;V. Bazarova;M. Okuda;K. Gotanda;Norio Miyoshi;T. Fujiki;Keiji Takemurak;H. Yonenobu;A. Fleck
这项研究提出了一个新编制的现代花粉和气候数据集，来自日本和俄罗斯远东地区的798个地点。这一综合性参考数据集与现代模拟技术（MAT）相结合，为基于花粉的第四纪西北太平洋气候重建提供了强有力的工具。在参考花粉采样点的现代气候的花粉衍生重建与估计的现代气候值匹配良好（R2值在0.79和0.95之间变化，RMSEP值在所有9个测试变量的现代气候范围的5.8%和9.7%之间变化）。该方法的成功测试鼓励其应用于化石花粉记录。我们使用了来自琵琶湖的粗分辨率花粉记录来重建日本中部自~ 438 kyr以来的冰川-间冰期气候动态，并将其与基于不太具有代表性的参考数据集的早期重建进行了比较。目前和早期的结果一致表明，最冷的冰期经历了明显的冷却在冬季和夏季适度冷却，支持冷混交林（COMX）的增长，其中温暖的混合林（WAMX）占主导地位。在末次冰期，最冷月（MTCO）和最暖月（MTWA）的最高（约24 kyr BP）平均温度分别约为−13°C（RMSEP=2.34°C）和21°C（RMSEP=1.66°C），年降水量（PANN）约为800 mm（RMSEP= 158.06 mm）。在间冰期的热力最佳期，最冷月和最暖月的温度分别在0°C和25°C以上，导致了WAMX和温带针叶林（TECO）的重建。虽然这两种植被都生长在日本南部，但WAMX需要更温暖的空间。在海洋同位素阶段（MIS）11和1期间WAMX的存在，以及在MIS 9和MIS 5期间WAMX的缺失与海洋同位素和南极冰记录相矛盾，这表明后两个间冰期是过去800 kyr中最温暖的。这种明显的矛盾至少允许三种不同的解释，包括花粉记录的时间分辨率低;在“短”和“长”间冰期期间CO2浓度的不同趋势;以及区域气候变异性和不同地区对全球强迫的非线性响应。更明确的结论将是可能的基础上，即将举行的高分辨率花粉记录从日本中部。
This study presents a newly compiled dataset of modern pollen and climate data from 798 sites across Japan and the Russian Far East. This comprehensive reference dataset combined with the modern analogue technique (MAT) provides a powerful tool for pollen-based reconstruction of the Quaternary Northwest Pacific climate. Pollen-derived reconstruction of the modern climate at the reference pollen-sampling sites matches well with the estimated modern climate values (R2values vary between 0.79 and 0.95, and RMSEP values vary between 5.8 and 9.7% of the modern climatic range for all nine tested variables). The successful testing of the method encourages its application to the fossil pollen records. We used a coarse-resolution pollen record from Lake Biwa to reconstruct glacial–interglacial climate dynamics in central Japan since ~438kyr and compared it to the earlier reconstruction based on a less representative reference dataset. The current and earlier results consistently demonstrate that the coldest glacial intervals experienced pronounced cooling in winter and moderate cooling in summer, supporting the growth of cool mixed forest (COMX) where warm mixed forest (WAMX) predominates today. During the last glacial, maximum (~24kyr BP) mean temperatures of the coldest (MTCO) and warmest (MTWA) month were about −13°C (RMSEP=2.34°C) and 21°C (RMSEP=1.66°C) respectively, and annual precipitation (PANN) was about 800mm (RMSEP=158.06mm). During the thermal optimums of the interglacial intervals, the temperatures of the coldest and warmest month were above 0°C and 25°C respectively, leading to the reconstruction of WAMX and temperate conifer forest (TECO). Although both these vegetation types grow in the southern part of Japan today, WAMX requires warmer space. The presence of WAMX during marine isotope stages (MIS) 11 and 1, and its absence during MIS 9 and MIS 5 contradict the marine isotope and Antarctic ice records, suggesting that the latter two interglacials were the warmest of the last 800kyr. The apparent contradiction allows at least three different explanations including low temporal resolution of the pollen record; different trends in CO2concentrations during ‘short’ and ‘long’ interglacials; and regional climate variability and non-linear response of different regions to the global forcing. More definitive conclusions will be possible on the basis of forthcoming high-resolution pollen records from central Japan.