Gastroenteritis Forecasting Assessing the Use of Web and Electronic Health Record Data With a Linear and a Nonlinear Approach: Comparison Study.
Gastroenteritis Forecasting Assessing the Use of Web and Electronic Health Record Data With a Linear and a Nonlinear Approach: Comparison Study.
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DOI：
10.2196/34982
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发表时间：
2023-01-31
影响因子：
8.5
通讯作者：
Lavenu, Audrey
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Poirier, Canelle;Bouzille, Guillaume;Bertaud, Valerie;Cuggia, Marc;Santillana, Mauricio;Lavenu, Audrey
关键词：
能够产生准确的实时和短期预测的疾病监测系统可以帮助公共卫生官员设计及时的公共卫生干预措施，以减轻疾病暴发对受影响人口的影响。在法国，现有的基于临床的疾病监测系统产生的胃肠炎活动信息实时滞后1至3周。这一时间数据差距使公共卫生官员无法在任何时间点及时掌握这种疾病的流行病学特征，从而导致干预措施的设计没有考虑到动态的最新变化。这项研究的目的是评估使用互联网搜索趋势和电子健康记录在国家和地区范围内近实时预测急性胃肠炎(AG)发病率以及进行长期预测(最多10周)的可行性。我们提出了两种不同的方法(线性和非线性)，在法国(国家和地区)的两个不同空间尺度上产生AG活动的实时估计、短期预测和长期预测。这两种方法都利用了不同的数据源，包括与疾病相关的互联网搜索活动、电子健康记录数据和历史疾病活动。我们的结果表明，所有数据来源都有助于改善胃肠炎的长期预测监测，由于这种疾病具有强烈的季节性动态，历史数据具有突出的预测能力。我们开发的方法可以通过使预期活动增加最多10周来帮助减少AG峰值的影响。
Disease surveillance systems capable of producing accurate real-time and short-term forecasts can help public health officials design timely public health interventions to mitigate the effects of disease outbreaks in affected populations. In France, existing clinic-based disease surveillance systems produce gastroenteritis activity information that lags real time by 1 to 3 weeks. This temporal data gap prevents public health officials from having a timely epidemiological characterization of this disease at any point in time and thus leads to the design of interventions that do not take into consideration the most recent changes in dynamics. The goal of this study was to evaluate the feasibility of using internet search query trends and electronic health records to predict acute gastroenteritis (AG) incidence rates in near real time, at the national and regional scales, and for long-term forecasts (up to 10 weeks). We present 2 different approaches (linear and nonlinear) that produce real-time estimates, short-term forecasts, and long-term forecasts of AG activity at 2 different spatial scales in France (national and regional). Both approaches leverage disparate data sources that include disease-related internet search activity, electronic health record data, and historical disease activity. Our results suggest that all data sources contribute to improving gastroenteritis surveillance for long-term forecasts with the prominent predictive power of historical data owing to the strong seasonal dynamics of this disease. The methods we developed could help reduce the impact of the AG peak by making it possible to anticipate increased activity by up to 10 weeks.
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影响因子：
2.5
作者：
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通讯作者：
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DOI：
10.1016/s0924-8579(99)00149-1
发表时间：
2000-01-01
影响因子：
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作者：
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通讯作者：
Farthing, MJG
影响因子：
8.5
作者：
Poirier, Canelle;Lavenu, Audrey;Bouzille, Guillaume
通讯作者：
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