Macro-economic cycles related to climate change in dynastic China
Macro-economic cycles related to climate change in dynastic China
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中国王朝与气候变化相关的宏观经济周期
DOI：
10.1016/j.yqres2014.11.001
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发表时间：
2015
影响因子：
2.3
通讯作者：
Zhang Xuezhen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wei Zhudeng;Rosen Arlene M.;Fang Xiuqi;Su Yun;Zhang Xuezhen
对气候与人类历史之间关系的研究往往更强调气候变化科学，而不是理解人类社会经济进程，因此结果肤浅，视角不平衡。部分原因是缺乏有关长期社会经济进程的高分辨率数据。在这里，我们的气候和社会的研究基础上，从中国的一系列2130年的经济代用数据与十年分辨率。在100年和320年的两个主要波段，经济与温度和降水量显着相关。经济状态的相变受到长期温度变化和短期降水变化触发效应的积极影响。然而，气候对经济的影响不应被视为简单的因果关系，而应被视为某种驱动-响应关系，并在多个尺度上受到人类行为的影响。“适应性周期”模型意味着，相对于发展阶段，衰退阶段的气候-经济关系更容易被缓慢的过程（如刚性）和快速的过程（如动荡）所缓和。从更宏观的角度来看，宏观经济周期的气候驱动力受到社会记忆、关键经济领域的空间转移和社会技术进步等更大、更慢的过程的调节。
Investigations of the relationships between climate and human history often place more emphasis on the science of climate change than on understanding human socio-economic processes, and therefore suffer from superficial results and an unbalanced perspective. This is partly due to the lack of high-resolution data concerning long-term socio-economic processes. Here, we base our study of climate and society on a series of 2130-yr-long economic proxy data from China with decadal resolution. The economy was associated significantly with temperature and precipitation at the two predominant bands of 100 and 320 yr. The phase transition of economic states was influenced positively by long-term temperature change combined with triggering effects of short-term changes in precipitation. However, climatic impact on economy should not be recognized as simple causality but some driving-response relation coupled with meditation by human agency at multiple scales. A model of ‘adaptive cycles’ implies, in relative to the developing phases, climate–economy relationship during the declining phases was more easily moderated by slower processes like rigidity and faster processes like unrest. From a more-macro perspective, climatic driving for the macro-economic cycles was moderated by larger and slower processes like social memory, spatial shifting of key economic areas, and social–technical advance.