Measuring the public health burden of cancer in the United States through lifetime and age-conditional risk estimates
Measuring the public health burden of cancer in the United States through lifetime and age-conditional risk estimates
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DOI：
10.1016/s1047-2797(01)00254-x
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发表时间：
2001-11-01
影响因子：
5.6
通讯作者：
Weed, DL
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Merrill, RM;Weed, DL
目的：确定美国人口老龄化对终生和发生特定部位癌症的年龄条件风险估计的影响，并讨论这些统计数据在监测疾病负担方面发挥的潜在作用。方法：通过将基于横断面人口的癌症发病率和其他原因的死亡率应用于假设队列，得出风险估计。通过双减生命表对队列进行年龄分析，以确定罹患该疾病的预期人口比例。 结果：尽管黑人男性的侵袭性癌症发病率高于白人男性，黑人和白人女性的发病率相似，但由于白人的预期寿命较长，白人患癌症的终生风险估计高于黑人：白人男性为 45.5%，黑人男性为 40.4%，白人女性为 39.2%，黑人为 32.4%女性基于 1995-97 年数据。仅在膀胱癌、非霍奇金淋巴瘤 (NHL) 和白血病方面，白人的 10 年癌症风险高于黑人。白人女性比黑人女性患乳腺癌、子宫体癌、卵巢癌、非霍奇金淋巴瘤和白血病的风险更高。对于白人和黑人来说，40 岁男性中肺癌的 10 年风险排名第一，50、60 和 70 岁男性中排名第二的是前列腺癌，40、50、60 和 70 岁女性中排名第二的是乳腺癌。结论：终生和年龄条件风险指标反映了疾病发病率和年龄分布随日历时间的变化，因此有助于监测人群的疾病负担。即使癌症发病率保持稳定或下降，如寿命和年龄条件风险估计所反映的，癌症负担也可能因人口老龄化而增加。 (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. 保留所有权利。
PURPOSE: Effects of an aging population in the United States on lifetime and age-conditional risk estimates of developing site-specific cancers are identified and the potential role these statistics play in monitoring disease burden discussed.METHODS: Risk estimates were derived by applying cross-sectional population-based incidence rates of cancer and mortality rates from other causes to a hypothetical cohort. The cohort was aged through a double decrement life table to determine the expected proportion of the population that would develop the disease.RESULTS: Despite black men having higher invasive cancer incidence rates than white men, and black and white women having similar rates, because of the better life expectancy among whites lifetime risk estimates of developing cancer are higher for whites than blacks: 45.5% in white men, 40.4% in black men, 39.2% in white women, and 32.4% in black women based on 1995-97 data. White men experience higher 10-year cancer risk than black men in only bladder cancer, non-Hodgkin's lymphomas (NHL), and leukemia. White women tended to show a greater risk than black women for cancers of the breast, corpus uteri, ovary, NHL, and leukemia. For both whites and blacks, the 10-year risk of lung cancer ranks first among men aged 40, ranks second to prostate cancer for men aged 50, 60, and 70, and ranks second to breast cancer for women aged 40, 50, 60, and 70.CONCLUSIONS: Lifetime and age-conditional risk measures reflect both changes in the disease incidence rates and age distribution over calendar time such that they are useful for monitoring the disease burden in the population. Even if cancer rates remain stable or fall, it is possible for the cancer burden, as reflected by lifetime and age-conditional risk estimates, to increase due to the aging population. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.