Computational Analysis of the Menu of US-Japan Trade Policies
Computational Analysis of the Menu of US-Japan Trade Policies
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DOI：
10.1108/s1574-8715(2010)0000007014
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发表时间：
2010-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Stern, Robert M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Brown, Drusilla K.;Kiyota, Kozo;Stern, Robert M.
我们使用了密歇根州可计算一般均衡(CGE)的世界生产和贸易模型来计算美日贸易政策菜单的总福利和部门就业影响。政策菜单包括美国和日本谈判和正在谈判的各种优惠的双边和地区性自由贸易协定(FTA)，两国单方面取消现有的贸易壁垒，以及全球(多边)自由贸易。美国的优惠协定包括2003年美国国会批准的与智利和新加坡的自贸协定，2004年与中美洲、澳大利亚和摩洛哥签署并等待国会批准的自贸协定，以及未来与南部非洲关税同盟(SACU)、泰国和美洲自由贸易区(FTAA)的自贸协定。日本的优惠协议包括2002年与新加坡签署的双边自贸协定，以及未来与智利、印度尼西亚、韩国、马来西亚、墨西哥、菲律宾和泰国的自贸协定。从绝对和相对角度来看，自贸协定对美国和日本的福利影响都相当小。在美国和日本，部门就业影响通常也很小，但根据双边自由化的模式，各个部门的影响有所不同。对自贸协定伙伴国的福利影响大多是积极的，尽管总体上很小，但也有一些迹象表明，一些伙伴国的就业转移可能会造成破坏。有迹象表明，在所分析的一些自贸协定中，贸易转移和对非成员国的不利福利影响。由于数据的限制，无法分析不同的自贸协定原产地规则和其他歧视性安排的福利效应。与美国和日本双边自贸协定的福利收益相比，美国、日本和自贸协定伙伴国的单边贸易自由化和全球(多边)自由贸易的收益都相当可观，而且对全球贸易体系中的所有国家都是积极的。美国和日本的自贸协定是基于“中心”和“辐射”的安排。我们表明，轮辐向不同的方向发出，而且往往是重叠的，这表明双边自贸协定的复杂性可能会对全球贸易体系造成扭曲。
We have used the Michigan computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of World Production and Trade to calculate the aggregate welfare and sectoral employment effects of the menu of U. S.-Japan trade policies. The menu of policies encompasses the various preferential U. S. and Japan bilateral and regional free trade agreements (FTAs) negotiated and in process, unilateral removal of existing trade barriers by the two countries, and global (multilateral) free trade. The U. S. preferential agreements include the FTAs approved by the U. S. Congress with Chile and Singapore in 2003, those signed with Central America, Australia, and Morocco and awaiting Congressional approval in 2004, and prospective FTAs with the Southern African Customs Union (SACU), Thailand, and the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA). The Japanese preferential agreements include the bilateral FTA with Singapore signed in 2002 and prospective FTAs with Chile, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Philippines, and Thailand. The welfare impacts of the FTAs on the United States and Japan are shown to be rather small in absolute and relative terms. The sectoral employment effects are also generally small in the United States and Japan, but vary across the individual sectors depending on the patterns of the bilateral liberalization. The welfare effects on the FTA partner countries are mostly positive though generally small, but there are some indications of potentially disruptive employment shifts in some partner countries. There are indications of trade diversion and detrimental welfare effects on nonmember countries for some of the FTAs analyzed. Data limitations precluded analysis of the welfare effects of the different FTA rules of origin and other discriminatory arrangements.In comparison with the welfare gains from the U. S. and Japan bilateral FTAs, the gains from both unilateral trade liberalization by the United States, Japan, and the FTA partners and global (multilateral) free trade are shown to be rather substantial and more uniformly positive for all countries in the global trading system. The U. S. and Japan FTAs are based on "hub" and "spoke" arrangements. We show that the spokes emanate out in different and often overlapping directions, suggesting that the complex of bilateral FTAs may create distortions of the global trading system.