Prediction of china’s submerged coastal areas by sea level rise due to climate change
Prediction of china’s submerged coastal areas by sea level rise due to climate change
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DOI：
10.1007/s11802-013-1908-3
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发表时间：
2013-07
影响因子：
1.6
通讯作者：
J. Zuo;Yiqiu Yang;Jianli Zhang;Meixiang Chen;Qing Xu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Zuo;Yiqiu Yang;Jianli Zhang;Meixiang Chen;Qing Xu
基于海洋-大气耦合模型CCSM和海洋模型POP在IPCC SRES A2（IPCC，2001）温室气体排放情景下的模拟，并根据地壳沉降和冰川融化数据，获得了21世纪中国沿海相对海平面变化。利用SRTM高程数据计算了100年一遇的极端水位下沿海低地的淹没情况。 2050年和2080年洪水总面积分别为98.3×103和104.9×103km2。对于最容易遭受极端海平面上升的三个地区，即渤海湾沿岸、长三角及其邻近的江苏省和浙江省北部以及珠江三角洲，2050年淹没面积分别为5.0×103、64.1×103和15.3×103km2，2050年淹没面积为5.2×103、67.8×103和15.3×103km2。 2080年分别为17.2×103km2。
Based on the simulation with the Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled Model CCSM and Ocean Model POP under the greenhouse gas emission scenario of the IPCC SRES A2 (IPCC, 2001), and on the earth crust subsidence and glacier melting data, the relative sea level change is obtained along the coast of China in the 21st century. Using the SRTM elevation data the submergence of coastal low land is calculated under the extreme water level with a 100-year return period. The total flooding areas are 98.3×103and 104.9×103km2for 2050 and 2080, respectively. For the three regions most vulnerable to extreme sea level rise,i.e., the coast of Bohai Bay, the Yangtze River Delta together with neighboring Jiangsu Province and northern Zhejiang Province, and the Pearl River Delta, the flooded areas are 5.0×103, 64.1×103and 15.3×103km2in 2050 and 5.2×103, 67.8×103and 17.2×103km2in 2080, respectively.