Estimate of the Basic Reproduction Number for COVID-19: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.
Estimate of the Basic Reproduction Number for COVID-19: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.
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DOI：
10.3961/jpmph.20.076
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发表时间：
2020-05-01
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Sepandi, Mojtaba
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Alimohamadi, Yousef;Taghdir, Maryam;Sepandi, Mojtaba
2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）爆发是全球目前面临的主要公共卫生挑战之一。由于其高传染性，COVID-19已在全球许多国家造成广泛的发病率和死亡率。准确估计COVID-19的基本繁殖数（R 0）将有利于预防计划。鉴于在这个问题上的原始研究的差异，这个系统性的审查和荟萃分析旨在估计合并的R 0为COVID-19在当前的outbreak.Methods：国际数据库（包括谷歌学术，科学直接，PubMed，和Scopus）进行检索，以确定研究进行的关于R 0的COVID-19。使用以下关键词检索文章：“COVID-19”和“基本繁殖数”或“R 0.研究之间的异质性使用I2指数，Cochran Q检验和T2进行评估。结果：在识别的文章中，平均报告的R 0为3.38±1.40，范围为1.90 - 6.49。根据随机效应模型的结果，COVID-19的合并R 0估计为3.32（95%置信区间为2.81至3.82）。根据荟萃回归分析的结果，用于估计R 0的模型类型对研究之间的异质性没有显著影响（p=0.81）。结论：考虑到COVID-19的估计R 0，减少人群中的接触人数是控制疫情的必要步骤。估计的总体R 0高于世界卫生组织的估计。
OBJECTIVES: The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is one of the main public health challenges currently facing the world. Because of its high transmissibility, COVID-19 has already caused extensive morbidity and mortality in many countries throughout the world. An accurate estimation of the basic reproduction number (R0) of COVID-19 would be beneficial for prevention programs. In light of discrepancies in original research on this issue, this systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to estimate the pooled R0 for COVID-19 in the current outbreak.METHODS: International databases (including Google Scholar, Science Direct, PubMed, and Scopus) were searched to identify studies conducted regarding the R0 of COVID-19. Articles were searched using the following keywords: "COVID-19" and "basic reproduction number" or "R0." The heterogeneity among studies was assessed using the I2 index, the Cochran Q test, and T2. A random-effects model was used to estimate R0 in this study.RESULTS: The mean reported R0 in the identified articles was 3.38±1.40, with a range of 1.90 to 6.49. According to the results of the random-effects model, the pooled R0 for COVID-19 was estimated as 3.32 (95% confidence interval, 2.81 to 3.82). According to the results of the meta-regression analysis, the type of model used to estimate R0 did not have a significant effect on heterogeneity among studies (p=0.81).CONCLUSIONS: Considering the estimated R0 for COVID-19, reducing the number of contacts within the population is a necessary step to control the epidemic. The estimated overall R0 was higher than the World Health Organization estimate.