Ontology for Relating Risk and Vulnerability to Cost Overrun in International Projects
Ontology for Relating Risk and Vulnerability to Cost Overrun in International Projects
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DOI：
10.1061/(asce)cp.1943-5487.0000090
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发表时间：
2011-07-01
影响因子：
6.9
通讯作者：
Birgonul, M. Talat
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fidan, Gulsah;Dikmen, Irem;Birgonul, M. Talat
风险管理是关于识别风险，评估其影响，并制定缓解策略，以确保项目成功。预期和实际项目结果之间的差异通常归因于风险事件以及在整个项目中如何管理它们。虽然有几个参考框架解释了如何在建筑项目中管理风险，但一个主要的瓶颈是缺乏风险相关概念的通用词汇。对项目中风险和风险传播模式的定义不佳，会降低为模拟不同风险发生情景下的项目结果而构建的风险模型的可靠性。本研究的目的是通过提出一个与风险相关的概念，成本超支的本体扩展以前的研究在风险管理。其主要思想是，成本超支取决于各种风险来源（即风险路径）与干扰这些路径的脆弱性来源之间的因果关系。本体是用来开发一个数据库系统，表示国际建设项目的风险事件的历史，并建立一个模型，估计成本超支。它将构成一个多代理系统的基础，该系统可用于模拟项目参与方之间关于分担费用的谈判过程，同时考虑到合同中的风险分配条款、脆弱性来源以及风险事件及其影响之间的因果关系。本体是通过与在国际市场上工作的土耳其承包商的互动和对风险相关概念的广泛文献回顾而构建的。验证测试结果提供的证据表明，本体是相当有效的，以帮助土耳其承包商评估成本超支，考虑在国际建设项目的脆弱性和风险的来源。DOI：10.1061/（ASCE）CP.1943-5487.0000090。(C)2011年，美国土木工程师协会。
Risk management is about identifying risks, assessing their impacts, and developing mitigation strategies to ensure project success. The difference between the expected and actual project outcomes is usually attributed to risk events and how they are managed throughout the project. Although there are several reference frameworks that explain how risks can be managed in construction projects, a major bottleneck is the lack of a common vocabulary for risk-related concepts. Poor definition of risk and patterns of risk propagation in a project decrease the reliability of risk models that are constructed to simulate project outcomes under different risk occurrence scenarios. This study aims to extend previous studies in risk management by presenting an ontology for relating risk-related concepts to cost overrun. The major idea is that cost overrun depends on causal relations between various risk sources (namely, risk paths) and sources of vulnerability that interfere with these paths. Ontology is used to develop a database system that represents risk event histories of international construction projects and to construct a model for estimation of cost overrun. It will form the basis of a multiagent system that can be used to simulate the negotiation process among project participants about sharing of costs considering the risk allocation clauses in the contract, sources of vulnerability, and causal relations between risk events and their impacts. The ontology is constructed by interaction with Turkish contractors working in international markets and extensive literature review on risk-related concepts. The validation test results provide evidence that the ontology is fairly effective to help Turkish contractors to assess cost overrun by considering sources of vulnerability and risk in international construction projects. DOI:10.1061/(ASCE)CP.1943-5487.0000090. (C) 2011 American Society of Civil Engineers.