Growth Expectation
Growth Expectation
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增长预期
DOI：
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发表时间：
2008
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Ippei Fujiwara
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ippei Fujiwara
长期以来，对未来预期的变化一直被认为是经济波动的重要来源，正如庇古(1926)所说。正如Barro和King(1984)指出的那样，在均衡经济周期模型中创建这样一个预期驱动的周期(庇古周期)被认为是一个困难的挑战，但最近，几位研究人员通过平衡财富效应和预期未来生产率较高的替代效应之间的紧张关系，成功地产生了庇古周期。克里斯蒂亚诺、伊卢特、莫托和罗斯塔诺(2007)的开创性研究解释了“股市繁荣-萧条周期”，其特征是通过引入投资增长调整成本、消费习惯形成、粘性价格和以通胀为目标的中央银行，消费、劳动力投入、投资和股票价格与预期的未来高技术水平相关的增加。然而，我们表明，这种周期很难基于“增长预期”来产生，“增长预期”反映了对更高生产率增长率的预期。因此，Barro和King(1984)的预测仍然适用。
For a long time, changes in expectations about the future have been thought to be significant sources of economic fluctuations, as argued by Pigou (1926). Although creating such an expectation-driven cycle (the Pigou cycle) in equilibrium business cycle models was considered to be a difficult challenge, as pointed out by Barro and King (1984), recently, several researchers have succeeded in producing the Pigou cycle by balancing the tension between the wealth effect and the substitution effect stemming from the higher expected future productivity. Seminal research by Christiano, Ilut, Motto and Rostagno (2007) explains the “stock market boom-bust cycles,” characterized by increases in consumption, labor inputs, investment and the stock prices relating to high expected future technology levels, by introducing investment growth adjustment costs, habit formation in consumption, sticky prices and an inflation-targeting central bank. We, however, show that such a cycle is difficult to generate based on “growth expectation,” which reflect expectations of higher productivity growth rates. Thus, Barro and King's (1984) prediction still applies.