Migration Choice under Risk and Liquidity Constraints
Migration Choice under Risk and Liquidity Constraints
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DOI：
10.22004/ag.econ.200702
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发表时间：
2015
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Marieke Kleemans
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Marieke Kleemans
本文开发并测试了一个移民选择模型，该模型结合了面临风险和流动性限制的家庭使用的两种突出的移民策略。一方面，移徙可以作为在突然的收入减少冲击之后的一种事后风险应对战略。另一方面，移徙可被视为一种投资，但流动性限制可能使家庭无法支付预付的移徙费用，在这种情况下，积极的收入冲击可能会增加移徙。这些不同的移民对冲击的反应是在一个动态的移民选择框架内模拟的，我使用了一个20年的小组，由38,914个人在印度尼西亚的内部移民决定进行测试。我的文件证据表明，移民增加后，同期的负面收入冲击，以及在积累了以前的积极冲击。与该模型一致，我认为，负面冲击后的移民往往是临时迁移到农村目的地，更有可能被那些低水平的财富，而投资移民更有可能涉及城市目的地，发生在更长的距离，并在持续时间更长。对模型的结构估计表明，财富和教育水平较低的人的移徙成本较高，并表明这两种移徙战略起着替代作用，这意味着那些为科普负面冲击而移徙的人不太可能投资于移徙。我使用结构性估计来模拟提供信贷和补贴移民的政策实验，并探讨天气冲击强度增加的影响，以更好地了解气候变化对移民的可能影响。
This paper develops and tests a migration choice model that incorporates two prominent migration strategies used by households facing risk and liquidity constraints. On the one hand, migration can be used as an ex-post risk-coping strategy after sudden negative income shocks. On the other hand, migration can be seen an as investment, but liquidity constraints may prevent households from paying up-front migration costs, in which case positive income shocks may increase migration. These diverging migratory responses to shocks are modeled within a dynamic migration choice framework that I test using a 20-year panel of internal migration decisions by 38,914 individuals in Indonesia. I document evidence that migration increases after contemporaneous negative income shocks as well as after an accumulation of preceding positive shocks. Consistent with the model, I nd that migration after negative shocks is more often characterized by temporary moves to rural destinations and is more likely to be used by those with low levels of wealth, while investment migration is more likely to involve urban destinations, occur over longer distances, and be longer in duration. Structural estimation of the model reveals that migration costs are higher for those with lower levels of wealth and education, and suggests that the two migration strategies act as substitutes, meaning that those who migrate to cope with a negative shock are less likely to invest in migration. I use the structural estimates to simulate policy experiments of providing credit and subsidizing migration, and I explore the impact of increased weather shock intensity in order to better understand the possible impact of climate change on migration.