Dynamic modelling of future land-use change: a comparison between CLUE-S and Dinamica EGO models
Dynamic modelling of future land-use change: a comparison between CLUE-S and Dinamica EGO models
复制标题
未来土地利用变化的动态建模：CLUE-S 和 Dinamica EGO 模型之间的比较
DOI：
10.1117/12.927781
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Maosi Chen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
W. Yi;Zhiqiang Gao;Maosi Chen
土地利用/土地覆盖变化是全球环境变化研究的热点。近年来的研究发现，土地利用变化直接或间接地影响着地球化学圈的结构以及物质和能量的循环。土地利用动态模型是研究土地利用变化过程的有效手段。本文的目的是比较两个广泛使用的土地利用动态模型，CLUE-S和Dinamica EGO，从土地利用变化的数量，空间特征，以及他们的效用的角度。通过案例研究考察了各个模型的优势，并使用Kappa系数比较了模拟精度。模拟结果表明，基于CLUE-S和Dinamica EGO的土地利用变化预测与实际情况基本吻合。CLUE-S的整体精度更高，而Dinamica EGO的马尔可夫过程可以精确地预测土地利用变化量。此外，基于Dinamica EGO的模拟地图的空间格局与实证结果更加一致。这两个结果表明，他们可能进一步适用于未来的土地利用变化预测和相应的研究。
Land-use and land-cover change has been a research focus in global environmental change. Recent research found that land-use change could influence the structure of biogeochemical spheres as well as material and energy recycle directly or indirectly. Land-use dynamic models are considered as an effective technique to study the processes of land-use modification. The objective of this paper is to compare two widely use land-use dynamic models, CLUE-S and Dinamica EGO, from the perspective of land-use change amount, spatial characteristics, and their utility. A case study was conducted to examine the ascendants of each model and Kappa coefficient was used to compare the simulation accuracy. The modelling experiments reflected that the predictions of land-use change based on CLUE-S and Dinamica EGO matched broadly with actual situation. CLUE-S was better in overall accuracy whereas the Markov process in Dinamica EGO could precisely predict the amount of land-use change. Moreover, the spatial pattern of simulation map based on Dinamica EGO was more consistent with empirical result. Both results indicate their possible further applicability for forecasting future land-use change and corresponding studies.