Linked population and economic models: some methodological issues in forecasting, analysis, and policy optimization.
Linked population and economic models: some methodological issues in forecasting, analysis, and policy optimization.
复制标题
人口与经济模型的关联：预测、分析和政策优化中的一些方法论问题。
作者：
M. Madden;Batey Pwj
与人口-经济预测相关的一些问题包括：找到适合于失业的衰退经济的模型，在区域间模型中使用多区域方法，找到一种方法来显示差异消费，同时将失业内生化，以及避免失业不一致。解决这些问题的办法是建立一个活动-商品框架，将其置于一组预测模型中，并指出框架动态化的可能比例。作者展示了可以从框架中得出的影响乘数的范围，并展示了这些乘数与Leontief投入产出乘数的关系。它表明，所需的人口分布可以通过选择工具，从经济领域生产，通过活动-商品框架的约束向量，从人口活动中选择的目标。这一过程的下一步，即实证利用，是由联合王国的作者进行的，将投入产出模型与广泛的人口和人口经济变量联系起来。政府对这类系统中的任何变量的控制通常都很薄弱，特别是在市场经济中，这使得在政策领域应用最优化方法成为一种部分的理论练习，尽管这种方法的分析能力可以提供明确的政策方向。
Some problems associated with demographic-economic forecasting include finding models appropriate for a declining economy with unemployment, using a multiregional approach in an interregional model, finding a way to show differential consumption while endogenizing unemployment, and avoiding unemployment inconsistencies. The solution to these problems involves the construction of an activity-commodity framework, locating it within a group of forecasting models, and indicating possible ratios towards dynamization of the framework. The authors demonstrate the range of impact multipliers that can be derived from the framework and show how these multipliers relate to Leontief input-output multipliers. It is shown that desired population distribution may be obtained by selecting instruments from the economic sphere to produce, through the constraints vector of an activity-commodity framework, targets selected from demographic activities. The next step in this process, empirical exploitation, was carried out by the authors in the United Kingdom, linking an input-output model with a wide selection of demographic and demographic-economic variables. The generally tenuous control which government has over any variables in systems of this type, especially in market economies, makes application in the policy field of the optimization approach a partly conjectural exercise, although the analytic capacity of the approach can provide clear indications of policy directions.