Temporal and geographical distribution of cases of foot-and-mouth disease during the early weeks of the 2001 epidemic in Great Britain
Temporal and geographical distribution of cases of foot-and-mouth disease during the early weeks of the 2001 epidemic in Great Britain
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DOI：
10.1136/vr.151.14.407
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发表时间：
2002-10-05
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
Wilesmith, JW
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gibbens, JC;Wilesmith, JW
对2001年口蹄疫流行早期病例可能感染日期的估计表明，在第一例病例披露之前，英国16个县至少有57个场所受到感染。在2月20日确诊首例病例后三天内，在全国范围内实施了动物运动控制，当时已知口蹄疫仅在两个县发生，这些控制限制了其地理传播。在最初几例确诊病例后，迅速发现新病例，每日确诊病例数的流行曲线在5周后达到峰值，比基于估计感染日期的曲线峰值晚11天。在高峰周，两条曲线均显示平均每天新增病例43例。据信，对于早期病例，估计的感染日期是相对公正的，因为它们来自已知的感染接触。然而，对于后来的病例，它们主要是从疾病的临床症状的年龄来估计的，并且受到物种和其他因素的影响，这种偏差可能会使估计的日期晚于实际情况。
Estimates of the likely dates of infection of the early cases of the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic indicate that at least 57 premises in 16 counties in Great Britain were infected before the first case was disclosed. Nationwide animal movement controls were imposed within three days of the first case being confirmed on February 20, when FMD was only known to be in two counties, and these controls limited its geographical spread. After the first few cases were confirmed, new cases were rapidly discovered, and the epidemic curve for the daily number of confirmed cases peaked five weeks later, I I days later than the peak of the curve based on the estimated dates of infection. in the peak week, both curves showed an average daily number of 43 new cases. The estimated dates of infection are believed to be relatively unbiased for the early cases, for which they were derived from a known contact with infection. However, for the later cases they were estimated mainly from the age of the clinical signs of the disease, and were biased by species and other factors, a bias which would probably have made the estimated dates later than was in fact the case.