Forecast skill of the Indian monsoon and its onset in the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system 5 (SEAS5)
Forecast skill of the Indian monsoon and its onset in the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system 5 (SEAS5)
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DOI：
10.1007/s00382-020-05624-5
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发表时间：
2021-02-09
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Senan, Retish
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chevuturi, Amulya;Turner, Andrew G.;Senan, Retish
准确预报印度季风降水的变化和季节时间尺度的进展仍然是预报中心面临的一个挑战。我们研究预测技巧的季节平均印度夏季风和它的发病在欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）的季节预报系统5（SEAS 5）。我们分析了5月1日开始的夏季后报，有51名合奏成员，1981-2016年的36年。我们对全球降水气候学项目（GPCP）降水观测和ECMWF再分析5（ERA 5）的后报进行了评估。该模式在提前一个月预报大尺度季风和局地季风爆发三分之一级的动力特征方面有显著的效果。SEAS 5显示出更高的技能季风功能计算使用大尺度指数相比，在较小的尺度。我们的研究结果还突出了模型在预测全印度季风降雨方面可能存在的缺陷。
Accurate forecasting of variations in Indian monsoon precipitation and progression on seasonal time scales remains a challenge for prediction centres. We examine prediction skill for the seasonal-mean Indian summer monsoon and its onset in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) seasonal forecasting system 5 (SEAS5). We analyse summer hindcasts initialised on 1st of May, with 51 ensemble members, for the 36-year period of 1981-2016. We evaluate the hindcasts against the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) precipitation observations and the ECMWF reanalysis 5 (ERA5). The model has significant skill at forecasting dynamical features of the large-scale monsoon and local-scale monsoon onset tercile category one month in advance. SEAS5 shows higher skill for monsoon features calculated using large-scale indices compared to those at smaller scales. Our results also highlight possible model deficiencies in forecasting the all India monsoon rainfall.