Creating synthetic baseline populations
Creating synthetic baseline populations
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DOI：
10.1016/0965-8564(96)00004-3
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发表时间：
1996-11-01
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
McKay, MD
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Beckman, RJ;Baggerly, KA;McKay, MD
为了使用微观模拟开发基于活动的旅行模型，必须考虑个体旅行者和家庭。给出了使用 1990 年人口普查数据创建家庭和个人基线综合人口的方法。人口普查局 STF-3A 的汇总表与公共使用微观数据样本 (PUMS) 结合使用，并应用迭代比例拟合 (IPF) 来估计具有所需人口统计组合的街区组或人口普查区中的家庭比例。家庭是根据这些比例从相关 PUMS 中选择家庭而生成的。此处用于从 PUMS 中进行家庭选择的人口统计比例表可用于传统建模。通过根据 PUMS 样本创建伪人口普查区并考虑家庭规模和家庭车辆数量的联合分布来验证该程序。结果表明，这些方法创建的联合分布与真实值没有太大差异。此外，本文还讨论了程序中微小变化的影响，例如补充人口统计数据和向构建的人口统计表添加部分计数。
To develop activity-based travel models using microsimulation, individual travelers and households must be considered. Methods for creating baseline synthetic populations of households and persons using 1990 census data are given. Summary tables from the Census Bureau STF-3A are used in conjunction with the Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS), and Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF) is applied to estimate the proportion of households in a block group or census tract with a desired combination of demographics. Households are generated by selection of households from the associated PUMS according to these proportions. The tables of demographic proportions which are exploited here to make household selections from the PUMS may be used in traditional modeling. The procedures are validated by creating pseudo census tracts from PUMS samples and considering the joint distribution of the size of households and the number of vehicles in the households. It is shown that the joint distributions created by these methods do not differ substantially from the true values. Additionally the effects of small changes in the procedure, such as imputation of additional demographics and adding partial counts to the constructed demographic tables are discussed in the paper.