The Economic Effects of Trade Policy Uncertainty
The Economic Effects of Trade Policy Uncertainty
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DOI：
10.17016/ifdp.2019.1256
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发表时间：
2019-09
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Dario Caldara;Matteo Iacoviello;Patrick Molligo;Andrea Prestipino;Andrea Raffo
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作者：
Dario Caldara;Matteo Iacoviello;Patrick Molligo;Andrea Prestipino;Andrea Raffo
摘要本文研究了贸易政策不确定性的意外变化对美国经济的影响。TPU的三个衡量标准是使用报纸报道、公司的财报电话会议和关税税率构建的。公司一级和总体宏观经济数据显示，TPU的增加减少了企业投资。通过一个具有名义刚性和企业出口参与决策的两国一般均衡模型对实证结果进行了解释。消息和未来更高关税的不确定性增加，减少了投资和活动。
Abstract This paper studies the effects of unexpected changes in trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on the U.S. economy. Three measures of TPU are constructed using newspaper coverage, firms’ earnings calls, and tariff rates. Firm-level and aggregate macroeconomic data reveal that increases in TPU reduce business investment. The empirical results are interpreted through the lens of a two-country general equilibrium model with nominal rigidities and firms’ export participation decisions. News and increased uncertainty about higher future tariffs reduce investment and activity.