Designing backcasting scenarios for resilient energy futures
Designing backcasting scenarios for resilient energy futures
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DOI：
10.1016/j.techfore.2017.02.001
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发表时间：
2017-11-01
影响因子：
12
通讯作者：
Handoh, Itsuki C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kishita, Yusuke;McLellan, Benjamin C.;Handoh, Itsuki C.
复原力的概念是制定理想未来愿景的关键部分，这些愿景旨在抵御对系统的各种外部冲击。回溯情景被广泛用于设想理想的未来，并考虑到当前的不连续变化。然而，较少的努力一直致力于制定理论框架和方法，以建立回溯的情况下，特别是侧重于复原力，虽然复原力已在相关的可持续性领域进行了探讨。本文提出了一种方法，有助于设计回溯情景弹性期货。该方法的一个特点是描绘“崩溃”的期货，基于该弹性期货被描述为避免各种崩溃状态。在设计回溯情景的过程中，使用故障树分析（FTA）来支持各种风险因素和对策的生成，以提高弹性。为了测试所提出的方法的有效性，我们提供了一个案例研究，以描述弹性能源系统的日本社区到2030年。举办了四次由不同学科研究人员参加的专家讲习班，以就具有复原力的能源系统提出各种想法。结果表明，崩溃的能源系统的三个场景进行了描述，其中的政策选择，以实现弹性能源系统的派生。(C)2017爱思唯尔公司All rights reserved.
The concept of resilience is a crucial part in crafting visions of desirable futures designed to withstand the widest variety of external shocks to the system. Backcasting scenarios are widely used to envision desirable futures with a discontinuous change from the present in mind. However, less effort has been devoted to developing theoretical frameworks and methods for building backcasting scenarios with a particular focus on resilience, although resilience has been explored in related sustainability fields. This paper proposes a method that helps design backcasting scenarios for resilient futures. A characteristic of the method is to delineate "collapse" futures, based upon which resilient futures are described to avoid the various collapsed states. In the process of designing backcasting scenarios, fault tree analysis (FTA) is used to support the generation of various risk factors and countermeasures to improve resilience. In order to test the effectiveness of the proposed method, we provide a case study to describe resilient energy systems for a Japanese community to 2030. Four expert workshops involving researchers from different disciplines were organized to generate diversified ideas on resilient energy systems. The results show that three scenarios of collapsed energy systems were described, in which policy options to be taken toward achieving resilient energy systems were derived. (C) 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.