Five challenges for stochastic epidemic models involving global transmission.
Five challenges for stochastic epidemic models involving global transmission.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.epidem.2014.05.002
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发表时间：
2015-03
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Trapman P
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Britton T;House T;Lloyd AL;Mollison D;Riley S;Trapman P
最基本的随机流行病模型是那些涉及全球传播的模型，这意味着感染率仅取决于所涉及的个体的类型和状态，而不是他们在人群中的位置。尽管这些模型很简单，但仍然存在一些悬而未决的问题。例如，这种流行病什么时候会灭绝，有多大的概率（问题取决于人口是固定的，变化的还是增长的）？如何定义一个模型来解释有时观察到的频繁的中等规模流行病爆发的情景？如何以稳健的方式对传染性病原体传播率的演变进行建模并与数据拟合？
The most basic stochastic epidemic models are those involving global transmission, meaning that infection rates depend only on the type and state of the individuals involved, and not on their location in the population. Simple as they are, there are still several open problems for such models. For example, when will such an epidemic go extinct and with what probability (questions depending on the population being fixed, changing or growing)? How can a model be defined explaining the sometimes observed scenario of frequent mid-sized epidemic outbreaks? How can evolution of the infectious agent transmission rates be modelled and fitted to data in a robust way?