Future Young Patient Demand for Primary and Revision Joint Replacement: National Projections from 2010 to 2030
Future Young Patient Demand for Primary and Revision Joint Replacement: National Projections from 2010 to 2030
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DOI：
10.1007/s11999-009-0834-6
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发表时间：
2009-10-01
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Bozic, Kevin J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kurtz, Steven M.;Lau, Edmund;Bozic, Kevin J.
以往对全关节置换术（TJR）体积的预测并没有量化年轻患者（< 65岁）对TJR手术的需求。我们对美国年轻患者对TJR的需求进行了预测。全国住院患者样本用于确定1993年至2006年间的原发性和修订tjr，作为年龄，性别，种族和人口普查地区的函数。手术患病率使用泊松回归建模，允许每个人群亚组随时间的不同比率。如果关节置换手术的历史增长轨迹继续下去，预计到2011年和2016年，65岁以下患者对原发性THA和TKA的需求将分别超过所有年龄THA和TKA患者的50%。预计到2011年，65岁以下的患者将超过翻修TKA患者总数的50%。这项研究强调了年轻患者在未来对TJR手术的需求中可能发挥的主要作用。证据等级：II级，预后研究。有关证据水平的完整描述，请参见作者指南。
Previous projections of total joint replacement (TJR) volume have not quantified demand for TJR surgery in young patients (< 65 years old). We developed projections for demand of TJR for the young patient population in the United States. The Nationwide Inpatient Sample was used to identify primary and revision TJRs between 1993 and 2006, as a function of age, gender, race, and census region. Surgery prevalence was modeled using Poisson regression, allowing for different rates for each population subgroup over time. If the historical growth trajectory of joint replacement surgeries continues, demand for primary THA and TKA among patients less than 65 years old was projected to exceed 50% of THA and TKA patients of all ages by 2011 and 2016, respectively. Patients less than 65 years old were projected to exceed 50% of the revision TKA patient population by 2011. This study underscores the major contribution that young patients may play in the future demand for primary and revision TJR surgery.Level of Evidence: Level II, prognostic study. See Guidelines for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.