INTERGENERATIONAL TRADE, LONGEVITY, AND ECONOMIC-GROWTH
INTERGENERATIONAL TRADE, LONGEVITY, AND ECONOMIC-GROWTH
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DOI：
10.1086/261788
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发表时间：
1991-10-01
影响因子：
8.2
通讯作者：
LUI, FT
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
EHRLICH, I;LUI, FT
我们开发了一个代际内生增长模型，其中人力资本是增长的引擎，代际之间通过家庭内部的物质和情感相互依赖联系在一起。父母对子女的投资是为了实现养老（照顾）和情感满足，而子女的物质支持是通过自我执行的隐性契约来确定的。我们表明，最优代际贸易，然后可以导致增长机会的最大化。我们的模型产生了一个“人口转变”的理论，将寿命、生育率和经济增长联系起来。我们还表明，虽然人口老龄化可能会提高增长率，但在增长均衡中，老年人寿命的增加可能会导致增长率的更大增长和生育率的降低。这些预测和模型对起飞期间私人储蓄行为的影响似乎与经验证据一致。
We develop an overlapping-generations model of endogenous growth in which human capital is the engine of growth and the generations are linked through material and emotional interdependencies within the family. Parents invest in their children to achieve both old-age support (care) and emotional gratification, and material support from children is determined through self-enforcing implicit contracts. We show that optimal intergenerational trade can then lead to maximization of growth opportunities. Our model produces a theory of the "demographic transition" linking longevity, fertility, and economic growth. We also show that while population aging may raise the growth rate, an increase in young-age longevity is likely to produce a greater increase in the growth rate and a reduction in the fertility rate in a growth equilibrium. These predictions and the model's implications concerning the behavior of private savings during the takeoff period appear consistent with empirical evidence.