Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China
Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China
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DOI：
10.1101/2020.03.13.20035238
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发表时间：
2020-05-09
影响因子：
6.1
通讯作者：
Shi, Wei
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Qiu, Yun;Chen, Xi;Shi, Wei
本研究模拟了 2020 年 1 月 19 日至 2 月 29 日期间新型冠状病毒在中国的本地和跨城市传播。我们研究了各种社会经济中介因素的作用，包括鼓励当地社区保持社交距离的公共卫生措施。两周前的天气特征用作因果推断的工具变量。一月下旬实施的严格隔离、城市封锁和当地公共卫生措施显着降低了病毒传播率。到二月中旬，病毒传播得到遏制。与地理邻近和经济条件相似等其他因素相比，疫情源地的人口外流对目的地地区构成的风险更高。我们通过反事实分析来量化不同公共卫生措施在减少感染数量方面的效果。由于中国一月下旬采取的国家和省级公共卫生措施，可能避免了超过 140 万人感染和 56,000 人死亡。
This study models local and cross-city transmissions of the novel coronavirus in China between January 19 and February 29, 2020. We examine the role of various socioeconomic mediating factors, including public health measures that encourage social distancing in local communities. Weather characteristics 2 weeks prior are used as instrumental variables for causal inference. Stringent quarantines, city lockdowns, and local public health measures imposed in late January significantly decreased the virus transmission rate. The virus spread was contained by the middle of February. Population outflow from the outbreak source region posed a higher risk to the destination regions than other factors, including geographic proximity and similarity in economic conditions. We quantify the effects of different public health measures in reducing the number of infections through counterfactual analyses. Over 1.4 million infections and 56,000 deaths may have been avoided as a result of the national and provincial public health measures imposed in late January in China.