Simulating post-disaster temporary housing needs for displaced households and out-of-town contractors
Simulating post-disaster temporary housing needs for displaced households and out-of-town contractors
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DOI：
10.1177/87552930221112690
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发表时间：
2022-02
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Chenbo Wang;R. Costa;J. Baker
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Chenbo Wang;R. Costa;J. Baker
重大灾害造成的住宅损坏常常导致当地居民离开家园，住进临时住房。协助灾后住房重建的外地承包商也需要住房，这给当地住房存量带来了额外的压力。因此，社区应为临时住房需求激增做好准备，尽量减少对当地居民的影响，并加快住房恢复工作。计算模型可以支持恢复计划。本文介绍了一个基于代理的模拟框架，用于估计劳动力需求以及承包商和流离失所家庭的联合临时住房需求。主要代理人是寻求修缮房屋的家庭、当地承包商和外地承包商。如果劳动力和住房市场有利，外地承包商代理商就会进入社区。该框架可用于评估旨在吸引外地承包商加快住房恢复的干预措施所带来的挑战和好处。我们提出了关于旧金山市在假设的 6.5 级、7.2 级和 7.9 级地震后的住房恢复情况的案例研究。如果不招募外地承包商，承包商短缺就会成为重建的瓶颈。相反，外地承包商增加了临时住房短缺的可能性。这些结果凸显了需要针对恢复期间重建劳动力和临时住房的短缺制定计划。
Residential damage from major disasters often displaces local residents out of their homes and into temporary housing. Out-of-town contractors assisting in post-disaster housing reconstruction also need housing, creating additional pressure on the local housing stock. Communities should thus prepare for a surge in temporary housing demand to minimize the impact on the local residents and to expedite housing recovery efforts. Computational models can support recovery planning. This article introduces an agent-based simulation framework to estimate the workforce demand and the joint temporary housing needs of contractors and displaced households. The main agents are households seeking to repair their homes, local contractors, and out-of-town contractors. Out-of-town contractor agents come into the community if the labor and housing markets are favorable. The framework can be used to evaluate the resulting challenges and benefits of interventions aimed at attracting out-of-town contractors to expedite housing recovery. We present a case study on the housing recovery of the city of San Francisco after hypothetical M 6.5, M 7.2, and M 7.9 earthquakes. A shortage of contractors is shown to bottleneck the reconstruction if no out-of-town contractors are recruited. Conversely, out-of-town contractors increase the likelihood of temporary housing shortages. These results highlight the need to plan for shortages of reconstruction labor and temporary housing during recovery.