Assessment of sea ice-atmosphere links in CMIP5 models
Assessment of sea ice-atmosphere links in CMIP5 models
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DOI：
10.1007/s00382-016-3367-1
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发表时间：
2017-07-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Shuckburgh, Emily F.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Boland, Emma J. D.;Bracegirdle, Thomas J.;Shuckburgh, Emily F.
北极目前正在经历剧烈的气候变化，这在很大程度上被认为是由于所谓的“北极放大”，即当地的反馈加剧了全球变暖。最近，一些观测和模拟研究对北极海冰范围的这种变化可能对北方半球中纬度地区的天气产生的影响提出了质疑，特别是最近的极端寒冷冬季，如2009/10年，是否可能与观测到的北极海冰减少的影响一致。然而，这些联系的拟议机制并没有得到一致的证明。在一个独特的全面的跨季节和跨模式的研究中，我们表明，CMIP 5模型提供不支持下降的北极海冰和负NAM之间的关系，或下降的巴伦茨-卡拉海冰和寒冷的欧洲温度之间的关系。缺乏证据的建议的联系是一致的研究报告，在这些关系的低信噪比。这些结果意味着，虽然在北方半球海冰减少和极端寒冷天气事件之间可能存在联系，但CMIP 5模型实验并未显示这是长期的领先顺序效应。我们认为，这可能是由于CMIP 5模式的局限性和其他重要的长期影响北方半球气候的迹象相结合。
The Arctic is currently undergoing drastic changes in climate, largely thought to be due to so-called 'Arctic amplification', whereby local feedbacks enhance global warming. Recently, a number of observational and modelling studies have questioned what the implications of this change in Arctic sea ice extent might be for weather in Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, and in particular whether recent extremely cold winters such as 2009/10 might be consistent with an influence from observed Arctic sea ice decline. However, the proposed mechanisms for these links have not been consistently demonstrated. In a uniquely comprehensive cross-season and cross-model study, we show that the CMIP5 models provide no support for a relationship between declining Arctic sea ice and a negative NAM, or between declining Barents-Kara sea ice and cold European temperatures. The lack of evidence for the proposed links is consistent with studies that report a low signal-to-noise ratio in these relationships. These results imply that, whilst links may exist between declining sea ice and extreme cold weather events in the Northern Hemisphere, the CMIP5 model experiments do not show this to be a leading order effect in the long-term. We argue that this is likely due to a combination of the limitations of the CMIP5 models and an indication of other important long-term influences on Northern Hemisphere climate.