Fail-safe and safe-to-fail adaptation: decision-making for urban flooding under climate change
Fail-safe and safe-to-fail adaptation: decision-making for urban flooding under climate change
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-017-2090-1
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发表时间：
2017-12-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Underwood, B. Shane
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kim, Yeowon;Eisenberg, Daniel A.;Underwood, B. Shane
随着气候变化影响降水模式，城市基础设施可能更容易受到洪水的影响。必须制定洪水缓解策略，以便基础设施的故障不会危及人员，活动或其他基础设施。“故障安全”是一种新出现的范例，它概括地描述了允许基础设施发生故障但控制或尽量减少故障后果的适应情景。传统上，基础设施被设计为“故障安全”，当风险在设计的安全系数内被准确预测时，它们提供强大的保护。然而，由于气候变化，城市基础设施面临的风险和不确定性变得如此之大，以至于“自动防故障”模式应该受到质疑。我们提出了一个框架，以评估潜在的洪水解决方案的基础上，多个基础设施的弹性特征，使用多标准决策分析（MCDA）层次分析法算法，优先考虑“安全失败”和“故障安全”的战略，这取决于利益相关者的喜好。使用城市洪水在亚利桑那州凤凰城，作为一个案例研究，我们首先估计洪水强度和评估道路脆弱性使用暴雨水管理模型的一系列暴雨发生在2014年9月8日。结果显示了易受攻击的道路类型和位置。接下来，我们确定了一套适应策略和这些策略的特点，并试图更明确地将洪水解决方案归类为“安全失败”和“故障安全”与这些特点。最后，我们使用MCDA来展示当利益相关者对特定的适应特征有不同的偏好时，适应策略排名是如何变化的。
As climate change affects precipitation patterns, urban infrastructure may become more vulnerable to flooding. Flooding mitigation strategies must be developed such that the failure of infrastructure does not compromise people, activities, or other infrastructure. "Safe-to-fail" is an emerging paradigm that broadly describes adaptation scenarios that allow infrastructure to fail but control or minimize the consequences of the failure. Traditionally, infrastructure is designed as "fail-safe" where they provide robust protection when the risks are accurately predicted within a designed safety factor. However, the risks and uncertainties faced by urban infrastructure are becoming so great due to climate change that the "fail-safe" paradigm should be questioned. We propose a framework to assess potential flooding solutions based on multiple infrastructure resilience characteristics using a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) analytic hierarchy process algorithm to prioritize "safe-to-fail" and "fail-safe" strategies depending on stakeholder preferences. Using urban flooding in Phoenix, Arizona, as a case study, we first estimate flooding intensity and evaluate roadway vulnerability using the Storm Water Management Model for a series of downpours that occurred on September 8, 2014. Results show the roadway types and locations that are vulnerable. Next, we identify a suite of adaptation strategies and characteristics of these strategies and attempt to more explicitly categorize flooding solutions as "safe-to-fail" and "fail-safe" with these characteristics. Lastly, we use MCDA to show how adaptation strategy rankings change when stakeholders have different preferences for particular adaptation characteristics.