SST ensemble experiment-based impact assessment of climate change on storm surge caused by pseudo-global warming - Case study of Typhoon Vera in 1959
SST ensemble experiment-based impact assessment of climate change on storm surge caused by pseudo-global warming - Case study of Typhoon Vera in 1959
复制标题
基于海温集合实验的气候变化对拟全球变暖风暴潮的影响评估——以1959年台风维拉为例
DOI：
10.1142/s0578563417400022
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发表时间：
2017
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
T. Takemi and O. Arakawa
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ninomiya;J.;N. Mori;T. Takemi and O. Arakawa
为了评估未来全球变暖引起的风暴潮的变化，利用台风维拉在当前和未来气候条件下的天气研究和预报模式进行了动态降尺度，并利用风暴潮、波浪和潮汐耦合模式进行了风暴潮模拟。目前的气候实验需要使用日本55年再分析项目的数据作为初始和边界条件的动力缩减，而未来的气候实验需要考虑未来的变化，考虑到通过使用气象研究所大气环流模式的海表面温度集合实验模拟的未来变化。减弱后的台风特征与最佳路径特征吻合较好，未来台风特征变化为：中心气压加强，高纬地区延迟下降，路径西移。在修正了与观测风暴潮一致的路径误差后，利用这些降尺度结果进行了当前气候风暴潮模拟，但由于台风路径和地面粗糙度的差异，未来气候条件下的风暴潮被低估了。风暴潮模拟使用了一个经验台风模式；结果表明，位于伊势湾最内侧的名古屋港的风暴潮为26厘米(集合的平均值)。
To evaluate future changes in storm surge caused by global warming, dynamical downscaling was conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting model for Typhoon Vera under present- and future-climate conditions and storm surge simulation using the Coupled Model of Surge, Wave, and Tide. The present-climate experiment entailed dynamical downscaling using data from the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis project as the initial and boundary conditions, and the future-climate experiments entailed downscaling considering future changes simulated through sea-surface temperature ensemble experiments using the Meteorological Research Institute Atmosphere General Circulation Model. The characteristics of the downscaled typhoon agreed well with the Best Track, and the future changes in the typhoon characteristics were as follows: intensification of the central pressure, delayed decline in the high-latitude area, and westward track migration. Present-climate storm surge simulation executed using these downscaling results after correcting for the track error agreed with the observed surge, but the storm surges under future-climate conditions were underestimated because of differences in the typhoon track and surface roughness. Storm surge simulations were conducted using an empirical typhoon model; the results suggest a storm surge of 26cm (average of the ensemble) at Nagoya Port, which is located in the innermost region of Ise Bay.